Gov. Kathy Hochul is expected to face challengers from both parties when she campaigns for re-election next year.
Credit...Cindy Schultz for The New York Times

Hochul’s State of the State Address Will Examine New York’s Future, and Her Own

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s State of the State speech is expected to respond to the voter dissatisfaction that became evident in November, especially regarding affordability and crime.

by · NY Times

As Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York prepares to deliver her State of the State address on Tuesday, her priorities seem firmly focused on the voter frustrations that fueled Donald J. Trump’s election to the presidency in November.

Over the last month, Ms. Hochul has announced proposals to cut taxes for parents, make school lunch free and give millions of New Yorkers rebates of up to $500 depending on their income. These ideas have all been packaged as part of an “affordability agenda.”

And on Tuesday, Ms. Hochul is expected to announce a new series of middle-class tax cuts, and devote a portion of her speech to efforts to combat crime and mental illness.

“You tell us you need help; we hear you need help,” Ms. Hochul said earlier this month when previewing some of the proposals that will be included in her speech and her executive budget, which will come out next week. “We’re going to continue delivering real solutions that make a difference.”

Ms. Hochul, a centrist Democrat, is also expected to reinforce the notion that New York will protect vulnerable groups from aggressive policies adopted by the incoming Trump administration, especially concerning recent immigrants, according to someone familiar with her planned speech.

The governor, however, has no plans to adopt the kind of “resistance” fervor that characterized responses to Mr. Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, the person said.

Ms. Hochul’s reticence may reflect the precariousness of her own political future. Her popularity has plummeted in recent years, and rivals from both parties appear to be preparing to challenge her in 2026.

One potential Republican candidate, U.S. Representative Mike Lawler, who represents parts of the Hudson Valley, will be in Albany on Tuesday to offer his party’s rebuttal to her remarks, alongside Republicans from the State Legislature.

Mr. Lawler has bashed the governor on congestion pricing, crime and a litany of other issues, and is certain to do the same on Tuesday.

Last month, Siena College released a poll that found that just 33 percent of voters wanted Ms. Hochul re-elected and about 39 percent had a favorable view of her. The poll also showed that about 43 percent of New York voters think lowering the cost of living should be the Legislature’s top priority this year. Creating more affordable housing was also high on the list of priorities.

Ms. Hochul has seemed to tailor some of her State of the State proposals to those voter concerns. Her proposed “inflation refund” program would route roughly $3 billion in excess sales tax revenue directly to New Yorkers.

And Ms. Hochul’s proposed expansion of the state’s child tax credit would more than double what some families currently receive. In recent years, New York’s poorest families have typically received up to $330 per child. If the plan were enacted, eligible families could get tax credits of up to $1,000 per child under the age of 4. Families with children ages 4 to 16 could get credits of up to $500 per child.

These proposed tax cuts and refunds come as the state contemplates how to plug a multibillion-dollar funding hole for infrastructure improvements to public transit. Last month, Carl E. Heastie, the Assembly speaker, and Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the Senate majority leader, rejected the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s capital proposal, citing in part the plan’s $33 billion deficit.

“Everything will have to be on the table,” Ms. Stewart-Cousins said when asked on Monday if new taxes to fund regional transit were under consideration.

Crime continues to be another pressing concern for New York voters, especially in the New York City subway, where a number of violent incidents have drawn attention to rider safety. Ms. Hochul is expected to use her speech to propose adding more lights and barriers on platforms, along with deploying more law enforcement officers on trains.

She is also expected to elaborate on her efforts to loosen the standards for involuntary commitment and expand laws relating to court-ordered assisted outpatient treatment for people with mental illness. Mayor Eric Adams of New York City has been a major proponent of these changes, saying they will go a long way toward addressing some of the perceived disorder on the trains and will help vulnerable people.

Brian Stettin, Mr. Adams’s senior adviser on severe mental illness, said in an interview that Ms. Hochul’s public comments had been encouraging and showed an urgency about the problems that outreach workers and others were confronting.

“Her comments have been consistent with what’s in our package,” he said. “But we are waiting to see the details.”

The governor will also propose spending $400 million to breathe new life into Albany’s struggling downtown, including $150 million for the aging New York State Museum. The proposed funds for the state’s capital were earlier reported by The Albany Times Union.

Jay Root contributed reporting.

Politics in the New York Region