Election Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, even as opinion polls showed a tight race.

• Share full article

By Michael J. de la Merced

Supporters of prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt, where bettors could wager on the outcome of the election, said that the odds reflected reality faster and better than opinion polls. With President-elect Donald J. Trump’s resounding win, those claims seem to have been borne out.

“History was made today,” Shayne Coplan, the chief executive of Polymarket, wrote on X, claiming that “the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.”

It’s a major moment for betting markets, which have been around for years but surged to prominence in this election cycle. (A caveat: Such markets track the odds that a candidate will win implied by bets on their platforms, while polls measure how voters actually plan to act.)

The average odds from five political betting markets — Betfair, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets — showed Mr. Trump with better-than-a-coin-flip odds heading into Election Day, according to the aggregator site Election Betting Odds. By the time polls closed, the chances of a Trump victory shot up.

Prediction markets started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, even as opinion polls showed the race was neck and neck. That was despite questions about potential manipulation, notably with the emergence of a French trader who for a time cornered the market for the pro-Trump contract on Polymarket.

“Polls 0,” Tarek Mansour, the chief executive of Kalshi, wrote on X. “Prediction markets 1.”

Others have sought to get in on the action. Interactive Brokers and Robinhood set up their own political betting markets over the past month. And Wall Street is increasingly incorporating results from these platforms into its research.

Investor interest in the business is growing as well, with Polymarket working to close a $50 million fund-raising round that would value the company at $300 million. (It is already backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.)

Prediction markets could become even bigger in future elections. A federal appeals court is hearing a challenge to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s efforts to prevent Kalshi from offering election betting in the United States.

Our Coverage of the 2024 Election

The Presidential Race

• ‘Trump’s America’: Donald Trump’s comeback victory has established him as a transformational force reshaping the United States in his own image.
• How Trump Won: After the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, even many Republicans believed Trump’s political career was over. He proved everyone wrong.
• Harris’s Failed Pitch: Kamala Harris asked voters to protect democracy. Here’s why her call rang hollow for many Americans.

Other Results

• Senate: With a decisive margin in the Senate, an emboldened Republican majority is ready to empower Trump.
• House: Republicans made early gains in their drive to maintain control of the House, though the fate of the majority remains unclear.
• Abortion Ballot Measures: Abortion rights found support at the ballot box in seven states, but fell short in three contests.

More Coverage and Analysis

• Biden’s Legacy: In the wake of Trump’s victory, many Democrats are casting President Biden as a one-term president who set his party on a path to failure.
• A Red Shift: Of the counties with nearly complete results, more than 90% shifted in favor of Trump.
• JD Vance: The 40-year-old senator, who went from anti-Trump author to pro-Trump defender, will be one of America’s youngest vice presidents.