How the Push to Avert a Broader War in Lebanon Fell Apart

Diplomats thought both Israel and Hezbollah supported a call for a temporary cease-fire. Then Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader.

Everything appeared to be heading in the right direction for a breakthrough in Middle East peacemaking, to avert a spiraling war that would embroil the region.

Officials from the United Nations, France and the United States had drafted a statement calling for a three-week cease-fire aimed at preventing a broader conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, and shared it with the two sides to consider.

Amos Hochstein, a White House envoy, told United Nations and Lebanese officials that Israel was ready to endorse the statement, according to four Western diplomats and three Lebanese officials who were involved in or briefed on the talks. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, also sent word through an intermediary that his powerful militia supported the call for a cease-fire, the officials said.

So on Sept. 25, as world leaders gathered in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, President Biden and President Emmanuel Macron of France announced the plan and released the statement, expecting the warring parties to publicly embrace it.

But two days later, before diplomats could draw up a detailed cease-fire proposal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel declared at the United Nations that Israel must “defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon.” Soon after, huge bombs fell on Beirut’s southern outskirts, killing Mr. Nasrallah and extinguishing any immediate prospect of a cease-fire.

Now the expanded war in Lebanon that officials had been working to prevent is raging — and threatening to ignite a larger regional conflagration.

As Israel launches deadly strikes and its forces clash with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, interviews with nine officials with direct knowledge of the talks have revealed that progress toward a cease-fire was further along than previously known, but it was halted abruptly when Israel killed Mr. Nasrallah.

In an interview, Abdallah Bou Habib, the Lebanese foreign minister, accused Israel of extinguishing the possibility of a deal.

“They don’t want peace,” he said of the Israelis. “They want to continue fighting.”

Israeli officials have said that they seek to push Hezbollah away from the border so that more than 60,000 displaced Israelis can return home, and they doubt that a cease-fire alone could accomplish this.

A senior Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said that Israel had engaged in initial talks about a potential cease-fire, but did not expect to reach a truce during Mr. Netanyahu’s visit to New York.

The call for a temporary cease-fire in Lebanon came after 11 months of failed diplomatic efforts to end the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and sought to prevent a second major war — between Israel and Hezbollah. The killing of Mr. Nasrallah was the second time in 10 weeks that Israel had quashed progress toward a cease-fire by striking a militia leader; Israel’s assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, led to the hardening of that group against any Gaza cease-fire proposal.

Hezbollah began firing on Israeli positions in support of Hamas after Hamas carried out its deadly assault on Israel last October. Israel struck back at Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, leading to frequent exchanges of fire that caused more than 150,000 people to flee both sides of the border.

Last month, Israel swiftly escalated its attacks on Hezbollah, remotely detonating the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies, launching extensive airstrikes that killed hundreds of people and assassinating Hezbollah leaders.

In an attempt to stop the violence and to head off an Israeli ground invasion, officials from the United Nations, France and the United States began what one official called a “massive effort” to negotiate a temporary cease-fire.

Top officials from the White House and Israel had an initial conversation on Sept. 23. Then Mr. Hochstein, a senior White House official who had helped broker a maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 2022, took the lead, telling Lebanese officials that if they could secure Hezbollah’s buy-in, he would do the same with Israel, according to a Lebanese official, a Beirut-based diplomat and a senior American official.

The proposal called for a 21-day pause in fighting to allow for diplomacy aimed at reaching a longer-term truce. Under the plan, Hezbollah would move its fighters and weapons out of the border zone, a major Israeli demand.

Mr. Nasrallah had said repeatedly that Hezbollah would stop firing on Israel only when Israel stopped attacking Gaza. So the proposal also called for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. That was included, officials involved in the talks said, to make it easier for Mr. Nasrallah to accept it.

Most of the diplomacy was indirect, since Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and the United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, barring U.S. officials from interacting with its members.

Mr. Hochstein dealt with Mr. Netanyahu’s office in Israel. On the Lebanese side, he worked through Nabih Berri, the 86-year-old speaker of Parliament and a political ally of Hezbollah.

By Sept. 25, the diplomatic efforts seemed as if they were beginning to bear fruit.

That day, officials in Mr. Netanyahu’s office reviewed the proposal and raised some concerns, but Mr. Hochstein told officials from the United Nations and Lebanese officials in Beirut that Israel had agreed in principle to work toward a cease-fire, fueling hope that an accord was possible, according to several diplomats. But even as Israel gave these signals, it was already making plans to kill Mr. Nasrallah.

In New York, on that same day, the Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, and Mr. Bou Habib, the foreign minister, met in a hotel with Mr. Hochstein and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. Mr. Bou Habib said in an interview with The New York Times that the discussion focused on next steps, since the warring parties had indicated a willingness to go ahead.

“I went to a meeting with the Americans with the understanding that everyone was on board, Israel and Hezbollah,” he said. “We were all optimistic, as Hezbollah and Israel were on board.”

That afternoon, Mr. Berri told Mr. Mikati by phone from Beirut that Hezbollah had agreed to language in the cease-fire proposal. Mr. Berri also informed Mr. Hochstein, two Lebanese officials and two Western diplomats said.

That night, Mr. Biden and Mr. Macron announced the proposal, which had been endorsed by other Western and Arab nations.

“It is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and security to enable civilians to return to their homes,” Mr. Biden said. “The exchange of fire since Oct. 7, and in particular over the past two weeks, threatens a much broader conflict, and harm to civilians.”

In a speech at the United Nations the next day, Sept. 26, Mr. Mikati affirmed Lebanon’s support for the initiative, since he had been told that Hezbollah had signed on.

Some Israeli officials made comments that morning opposing any idea of a cease-fire, and U.S. officials said they waited anxiously for Mr. Netanyahu to issue a public endorsement of the proposal. American and French officials kept reassuring their Lebanese counterparts that the endorsement would come.

It was not until that night that the Americans saw a statement from Mr. Netanyahu saying, “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative.”

One U.S. official said those involved in the talks hoped they could scramble to get a cease-fire finalized the next day, Sept. 27. Some U.S. officials expected further signals of support for a cease-fire from Mr. Netanyahu in his speech that day at the United Nations.

But in his address, Mr. Netanyahu struck a hard tone, not mentioning the proposed cease-fire and vowing that Israel would keep fighting. American and French officials who had expected him to voice support for the diplomatic initiative said they were shocked.

Shortly after, Israeli fighter jets carried out a bombing south of Beirut, killing Mr. Nasrallah.

Many of the officials involved in the talks said they did not know why Israel had suddenly killed the prospect of a cease-fire. They guessed that Mr. Netanyahu faced pressure from hard-line members of his cabinet, or that Israel had a rare opportunity to assassinate Mr. Nasrallah and deemed it too good to pass up. Or that Israel had not been sincere in private talks with their proxies, the Americans.

Lara Jakes, Patrick Kingsley and Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.