Race to the finish: Where Trump and Harris stand, according to top pollsters

With Election Day looming, national polls reveal a dead heat

The US presidential election is coming down to the wire. End-of-campaign polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a virtual tie.

As Tuesday (November 5) approaches, the numbers reveal intense competition, with voters almost evenly split between the two.

Both camps are pouring resources into swing states, where just a few thousand votes could decide the election.

Will the polls definitively show the winner?

No. Polls don’t predict the winners, especially given the unique, yet complicated US Electoral College system.

Polls give us insight into key trends influencing voters and setting the stage for either Trump or Harris to win.

And they do highlight major forces driving the race and shaping support for each camp. But until ballots are counted after voting precints close, we won’t know for sure the actual outcome.

These are the six top polls on US voter leading up to the 2024 presidential race, and what they showcase:

1. Morning Consult Poll (November 2, 2024):

This poll indicates a tie between Trump and Harris, each receiving 48% of the vote nationally. The results show a significant push in key battleground states, reflecting the competitive nature of the election.

2. New York Times/Siena Poll (November 1, 2024):

Leads: Trump has a slight lead in Arizona. Harris shows stronger performance in Georgia and North Carolina. In Nevada, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points (49 per cent to 46 per cent). This poll highlights the shifting dynamics in states that are crucial for securing electoral votes.

Rust Belt vs. Sun Belt: Polls are adding complexity to the battleground debate (Rust Belt include parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and Kentucky; the Sun Belt includes 15 southern states in the US).

Deadlocks: Deadlocked races are seen in key Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), where Harris was initially expected to perform better.

These tight margins suggest that small turnout shifts could sway the election results. All swing states are within the “margin of error”, indicating close races.

In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 3 points (49 per cent to 46 per cent). This finding emphasises Trump’s stronghold in several critical swing states. In Georgia, Trump leads Harris by one point (49 per cent vs. 48 per cent), with a 3.7 per cent margin of error. InsiderAdvantage planned to adjust for lower early and absentee voting turnout among Black voters but kept the weighting high after several Democratic counties extended ballot drop-off until Election Day. In terms of its potential impact, this unexpected extension could raise Black turnout, a crucial factor for Democrats. Trump he needs strong Election Day turnout among Republicans, where he leads, to secure his edge in Georgia.

3. Insider Advantage Poll (November 2, 2024):

In Georgia, Trump leads Harris by one point (49 per cent vs. 48 per cent), with a 3.7 per cent margin of error. InsiderAdvantage planned to adjust for lower early and absentee voting turnout among Black voters but kept the weighting high after several Democratic counties extended ballot drop-off until Election Day.

In terms of its potential impact, this unexpected extension could raise Black turnout, a crucial factor for Democrats. Trump he needs strong Election Day turnout among Republicans, where he leads, to secure his edge in Georgia.

4. Focaldata (November 3):

Focaldata, a UK polling company, questioned more than 31,000 voters across the US over the past month for an innovative type of survey called “MRP” that has become influential in Britain in recent years, as per Politico.

Combining the MRP results with their large-scale online swing state polling, Focaldata assesses Harris is likely to take Michigan, with a lead of nearly 5 points, Nevada with a lead of about 2 points over Trump, and with a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

5. Des Moines Register and Mediacom (November 2):

In a closely-watched final Iowa Poll, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump with 47 per cent support among likely voters, compared to Trump's 44 per cent.

This thin margin reflects a significant shift from the previous September poll, where Trump held a slight edge at 47 per cent to Harris's 43 per cent.

Iowa had shown mixed results in the past four presidential elections: Barack Obama won there in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump secured victories in 2016 and 2020. This year's poll suggests a potential realignment in a state often considered solidly Republican, indicating that the upcoming election may be more competitive than anticipated.

6. NBC News:

NBC News' final 2024 poll for the November 5 election shows a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Each holds 49 per cent of registered voter support in a direct matchup, with 2 per cent undecided.

Expanded to third-party candidates, Trump leads with 47 per cent over Harris's 46 per cent, while 7 per cent support other candidates or remain undecided.

Key issues include Harris's strong support on abortion and middle-class advocacy, while Trump holds advantages on economic issues and a broader sense of discontent with national direction. Swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are expected to be pivotal in the outcome.

Voter turnout is crucial

Voter turnout will be crucial on November 5, as even small shifts in who shows up could tip the scales. After months of close polling and deep partisan divides, the election may hinge on minor differences in turnout.

The latest NBC News poll reflects this razor-thin race, showing Harris and Trump tied at 49 per cent, based on demographic expectations set by bipartisan pollsters.

Gender gap

NBC News polling reveals a striking 34-point gender gap in support for the two main candidates. Trump leads among men by 18 points, while Harris has a 16-point advantage with women.

Harris draws significant support from college-educated white women, while Trump maintains a stronghold among men and non-college-educated women, showing a divide that could define this election.

Key issues, such as Harris's historic potential as the first female president, responses to Trump’s political persona, and the impact of Roe v. Wade’s reversal, seem to amplify her appeal to women. Conversely, Trump’s messaging resonates strongly with men, a dynamic that could heavily influence voter turnout.

Latino, Black voter dynamics

While Harris has gained ground with college-educated white women, her support among Latino and, to a lesser extent, Black voters—particularly young Black men—has softened. In a closely contested race, any shifts among these groups could be decisive, especially in states where their votes are pivotal.

Popularity and approval ratings

The NBC News poll also indicates that, although Trump’s retrospective approval rating has seen slight improvement, he remains more unpopular than Harris, with a 42% favorable to 51% unfavorable rating. 

[Sources: The Hill | NYT| FocalData | RealClearPolling | Politico | NBC News ]