5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

Stock futures are slightly lower as major market indexes come into the final day of 2025 on a losing streak; major stock indexes are set to post double-digit gains for the third straight year; Fed officials still see inflation risks in 2026, raising questions about whether another interest rate cut is coming any time soon; weekly jobless claims figures are due this morning; and gold and silver prices are sliding after margin requirements were raised again. Here's what investors need to know today.

Stock Futures Point to Lower Open on Last Day of 2025

Stock futures are pointing lower this morning after three straight days of modest declines for major indexes. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were recently down 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.2%. Bitcoin traded at $88,800 recently, up about $1,000 from late yesterday afternoon. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects borrowing costs on all sorts of consumer loans, was at 4.11%, down from 4.13% at Tuesday's close. The bond market closes at 2:00 p.m ET today and will be shut Thursday for the New Year's holiday. The stock market has a full day of trading today ahead of the break, and will operate as normal on Friday.

Another Year of Double-Digit Gains For Major Stock Indexes

Despite the sluggish finish to the year, the stock market extended its multiyear bull run in 2025. Coming into today's session, the benchmark S&P 500 has gained 17% this year, marking its third consecutive year of double digit gains. The Dow has risen 14% so far in 2025, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged 21%. Stocks rebounded from tariff turmoil early in the year, including a sharp drop in April that contributed to three straight months of declines in major market indexes. While investments in AI technology helped boost markets, stocks also got a lift from a series of interest rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings and continued strong consumer spending. Analysts see the fundamentals for more growth in 2026, despite the likelihood for more volatility and increased risks. The S&P and Dow are poised to finish the year with eight straight monthly gains.

Fed Officials Watching Inflation, Jobs Data as They Weigh Rate Moves

More interest rate cuts could be coming in 2026, minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed, but some central bankers indicated they wanted to see more improvement on inflation first. The meeting minutes, released late Tuesday, laid out the divide between Federal Reserve officials. Some argued that interest rate cuts are needed to shore up a weakening job market, while others said inflation remained too high to enact more rate cuts. Fed officials said they see fewer risks of inflation from tariffs, while emphasizing the need to monitor upcoming economic reports before moving again on interest rates. After the Fed cut rates in its last three policy meetings, analysts see a couple of rate cuts coming in 2026, though an expected change in leadership in May could change the path on interest rates. President Donald Trump is expected to nominate a board chair who would favor rate cuts.

Gold, Silver Slide as CME Raises Margin Requirements Again

Gold and silver prices are losing ground this morning after margin requirements for trading the precious metals were raised for the second time this week. Gold futures were recently down 1.4% at $4,325 an ounce, while silver futures tumbled more than 8% to $71.30 an ounce. Exchange operator CME Group again raised the margin requirement, increasing the costs for traders, after the precious metals soared to a series of record highs in recent weeks. Gold and silver have hit record levels as investors sought a safe haven from market volatility, geopolitical turmoil and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Jobless Claims in Focus Amid Concerns About Labor Market

Investors will be keeping a close eye on weekly jobless claims data this morning after unemployment rose to its highest level in four years last month. The report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that 220,000 filed for unemployment insurance last week, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. The most recent U.S. jobs report showed that unemployment stood at 4.6% in November. Federal Reserve officials are closely following the labor market after concerns over job losses spurred the central bank to enact a series of rate cuts in recent months.

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