Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead of Socialist Lula in First Pre-Runoff Polls

The first round of polls published in Brazil following Sunday’s first round presidential election indicate conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead of incumbent socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as both prepare for the October 25 runoff.

Brazil held its 2026 general elections on Sunday, October 4. On that day, the first round of the presidential election concluded with a victory from Bolsonaro against Lula. However, as no candidate obtained a 50-percent majority of the votes, a runoff between the two candidates was automatically triggered and will take place on Sunday, October 25.

Sunday’s results came as a surprise, as Bolsonaro and his Liberal Party (PL) defied opinion poll projections that indicated Lula would end up in the lead during the first round, but with neither candidate winning in the first round regardless.

Days after the election, local polling firms have begun releasing their first round of polls ahead of the upcoming October 25 runoff.

The left-leaning Datafolha firm was reportedly the first to release the first post-election survey on Thursday. According to the firm, 49 percent of respondents said they will vote for Bolsonaro, against 45 percent who instead said they will vote for Lula.

Jovem Pan explained that these results also factor in those who answered in the survey that they will instead cast a “blank” or “null” vote, in addition to those who said to be still “unsure” as to who to vote for in the runoff. Excluding those answers, and only factoring in valid votes, Bolsonaro would instead count with the support of 52 percent of the respondents against Lula’s 48 percent, giving a four-point lead to the conservative Senator in the runoff race.

Atlas/Bloomberg, for its part, reportedly found in its latest poll that Bolsonaro counts with the support of 52.8 percent while Lula counts with 47.2 percent — which translates to a 5.6-point lead for the conservative frontrunner. Per the poll, Bolsonaro’s lead on Lula is narrowly reduced by 0.2 percent if “blank,” “null,” and “unsure” votes from respondents are factored in. According to UOL, the Atlas/Bloomberg poll has an error margin of about one-percent.

PoderData, a subsidiary of the outlet Poder360, published its most recent survey on Thursday. The results indicate that Bolsonaro presently has a six point lead ahead of Lula for the runoff, with 53 percent for the front-running conservative against 47 percent for the socialist president. Poder360 noted that the survey was conducted between Monday, October 5, and Thursday, October 8.

Asked to answer the question “Who do you think has the best chance of winning in the runoff?”, 54 percent of respondents answered that they believe Bolsonaro has a better chance of winning against 37 percent who instead believe Lula has the better odds.

The results, Poder360 further explained, also indicate that the expectation of a Bolsonaro victory has grown by nine percentage points in just a week. Conversely, the expectation of a Lula victory has been recused by 11 percentage points in that same time period. Before Sunday’s election, 45 percent believed that Bolsonaro would win the first round against 48 percent who instead expected the socialist president to win.

The PoderData survey also found a growing sense of defeat among Lula’s supporters, with only 76 percent of respondents who identified as Lulistas expressing confidence in a Lula victory. Conversely, 92 percent of Bolsonaro’s supporters that participated in the survey are confident that the conservative Senator will become the next President of Brazil.

Poder360 noted that no candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s who came in second place in the first round of a presidential election has managed to win in the runoff — a scenario that the outlet said does not determine the outcome of the runoff, but does illustrate the scale of the task that Lula and the PT party have before them.

Over the past days, Sen. Bolsonaro has obtained the support of some of the other presidential candidates that participated in Sunday’s first round, such as Romeu Zema of the right-wing Novo party, Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party, Augusto Cury of the centrist Avante party, and Clariana Barão of the Christian Democracy party.

Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.