Idaho GOP Sen. Jim Risch Leads Fake Independent by Nearly 30 Points

Idaho Republican Sen. Jim Risch leads his nearest competitor in the state’s U.S. Senate race by 27 points, according to an internal poll shared with Breitbart News. The polling memo states, “With just over two weeks to go until the midterm election, a recent statewide survey of likely 2026 general election voters shows Risch doubling the vote total of Todd Achilles.” 

In 2024, Democrats employed a strategy of placing Democrats into Senate races in Republican-leaning states who, in spite of being Democrats, called themselves independents — in order to mislead and confuse voters. The candidate that year, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, is again on the ballot after the winner of the state’s 2026 Democrat primary dropped out of the race. 

This election cycle, that tactic spread to several other states: Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota. Breitbart News has reported that three such candidates held a joint press conference in which they pledged not to join either party caucus if elected. Yet they maintained ties to Democrats, including endorsements, fundraising, and previous political activities. 

Achilles, a former Democrat state legislator, flipped his voter registration to “independent” and announced a challenge to Risch, who is seeking his fourth term representing Idaho. 

The winner of Idaho’s Democrat primary for Senate abandoned his campaign at the end of July in order to aid the campaign of Achilles, who was aided by a sympathetic New York Times profile outlining why he launched the campaign as an independent. 

“‘We’ve got a brand problem in places like Idaho and Montana,’ said Jared DeLoof, Democratic Party chairman in Ada County, which includes Boise and its fast-growing suburbs. ‘Having a ‘D’ next to your name makes winning unlikely, if not impossible,'” the Times article reads.

The internal poll for Risch, conducted by Peak Insights, surveyed 500 likely voters in the state between Oct. 13-15. It found him leading with 54 percent of the vote compared to 27 percent for Achilles, with 10 percent undecided. 

Follow Matt Mercer on X: @mattmercer.