Poll: 42 Percent of Brazilians Believe ‘Fraud’ Happened During Election

A poll published by the firm AtlasIntel on Friday revealed that nearly half of Brazilians, 42 percent, believe that some form of “fraud” was committed during their country’s 2026 presidential election, which resulted in the reelection of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Brazilian outlets detailed that the survey was conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg between November 5-9, and has a two percent margin of error. Per Poder 360, which published a full copy of the survey, 42.2 percent of respondents said they believe “fraud” was committed during the election when asked, “Does the outcome of the 2026 presidential election reflect the will of the voters, or was there electoral fraud capable of altering the outcome of the race?”

Conversely, 52.7 percent answered that the results “reflect the will of the electors.” Another 5.1 percent instead answered that they are unsure.

President Lula, the 81-year-old leader of the ruling far-left Workers’ Party (PT), was reelected for a fourth four-year term when he defeated conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff election. The runoff’s results surprised many, as Bolsonaro, son of conservative former President Jair Bolsonaro, had defeated Lula in the first round of the election. Lula’s victory has been attributed to a significant boost in left-wing voting during the runoff.

Although Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) accepted the results, an unprecedented situation raised questions about the election’s integrity. On that day, Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin issued a ruling that ordered polling stations to remain open two hours after 5:00 p.m. – the time that, according to local electoral guidelines, stations had to close to begin the tallying process. The order, however, was published at 5:01 p.m., meaning that stations that had rightfully complied with the electoral guidelines were already closed and security measures present in the electoral voting machines prevented their reopening.

The unprecedented ruling from the Supreme Court — which does not have the power to issue such an order — was even more controversial due to the fact that Justice Zanin served as President Lula’s defense attorney during the socialist president’s corruption case, in which he was found guilty.

Flavio Bolsonaro, who did not recognize the results of the election in its immediate aftermath, fled from Brazil days later. Minutes after the election was called, STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has an extensive track record of persecuting conservatives in Brazil, issued a ruling demanding that Bolsonaro hand over his passports and banned him from leaving the country. Bolsonaro nevertheless successfully left Brazil with his wife and children and arrived in Miami, Florida.

Poder 360 observed that the AtlasIntel poll found a “technical tie” with regards to the events that led to Bolsonaro’s departure from Brazil. Asked by AtlasIntel, “In your opinion, is the Supreme Court’s decision to prohibit Flávio Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil and to order the surrender of his passports fair or unfair?” 48.9 percent found it “fair” versus 48 percent who found it “unfair,” while 3.1 percent answered, “I don’t know.”

Justice de Moraes justified the ordered seizure of Bolsonaro’s passports on the grounds that the measure was allegedly part of an investigation into corruption allegations involving the conservative senator and a friend, Brazilian attorney Willer Tomaz. Both Bolsonaro and Tomaz reportedly denied the allegations.

Asked if they believed that Bolsonaro’s decision to leave Brazil was “correct” or “erroneous,” 52 percent of respondents answered that it was an “erroneous” decision, for “disrespecting justice and fleeing from ongoing investigations.” Conversely 46.1 percent of respondents instead answered that they believe it was the correct decision to “flee from political persecution.” The remaining 1.9 percent of respondents instead answered that they did not know.

Speaking with American journalist Glenn Greenwald for the Brazilian left-wing newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo, Bolsonaro once again questioned the results of the election last week, deeming them “impossible” given that the socialist president had lost the first round of the election.

“There’s no logic to what happened; there’s no mathematical or statistical explanation or anything for Lula to have more votes than he did in the first round,” Bolsonaro asserted to Greenwald. “It’s impossible unless there was manipulation, but we’ll never know because it won’t be investigated. And who can talk about that? Me, because I’m here.”

Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.