Syrian Kurds Face Uncertain Future After Fall of Assad

Syrian Kurds find themselves in a difficult position after the fall of dictator Bashar Assad, as Islamists seize power in Damascus and Turkey seeks to carve out a slice of Syrian territory along its border.

Turkey views all Syrian Kurdish militia groups as a major security threat, insisting they are all linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a violent separatist organization in Turkey. This applies to Kurdish militias that were allies of the United States and Europe in the war against the Islamic State, such as the People’s Defense Units (YPG). 

Turkish officials have a habit of naming all such militias as if they were wings of the PKK — for example, referring to the YPG as “PKK-YPG.” Turkey’s ruling AKP party also tries to delegitimize Kurdish politicians by accusing them of having secret links to the PKK.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invaded Syria several times since its civil war broke out in 2011, with the goal of creating a “security corridor” along its border that is free of Kurdish armed groups. 

Turkey cultivated alliances with a network of Syrian rebel groups, collectively known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), who have been happy to help Turkey drive Kurds out of the “security corridor.” 

No sooner had doctor Bashar Assad been ousted from Damascus two weeks ago than Turkish officials began urging the victorious Islamist insurgents of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to team up with Turkey against the Kurds. Turkey’s SNA allies clashed with Kurdish forces and captured several towns from them in December, notably including Manbij, a city that was hotly contested during the rise and fall of the Islamic State.

Reuters on Monday saw the Kurds “on the back foot” as much of the territory they consolidated over the past 13 years is now threatened by HTS, which apparently seeks good relations with Turkey, and the even more hostile militias of the NSA.

Century International fellow Aron Lund told Reuters the Syrian Kurds “are in deep, deep trouble.”

“The balance has shifted fundamentally in Syria to the advantage of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey seems determined to exploit this to the fullest,” Lund said.

Bilgehan Alagoz, professor of international relations at Marmara University in Istanbul, said the Kurds are in a uniquely dangerous position because “there is now no Russia, no Iran” to keep Turkey or the ruling power in Damascus at bay. She predicted Erdogan would not pass up the opportunity to focus his attention on destroying the YPG.

Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad’s regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG. We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG,” Alagoz told RFI on Saturday.

Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen noted that Turkey’s SNA allies are approaching the Euphrates River. Crossing that line without permission from HTS could cause friction between Turkey and the new rulers of Syria — and it would put the SNA on a collision course with the small American military force remaining in Syria.

The Kurds might be able to turn to Israel for help. The Israelis have established their own buffer zone in post-Assad Syria, and they have long seen the Kurds as an ally in Syria. The Israelis might even intend for their buffer zone to become a protective barricade behind which the Kurds can establish their own miniature state within Syria.

Israeli officials called on the international community to protect the Kurds within a few days of Assad’s ouster.

“It’s a commitment of the international community towards those who fought bravely against ISIS. It’s also a commitment for the future of Syria, because the Kurds are a stabilizing force in this country,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on December 9.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Golan was even more forceful in supporting the Kurds, arguing that Israel should move quickly and decisively to empower the Kurds as a political counter to Turkey and the Islamists who now run Damascus.

“Israel must be concerned about one basic thing: a Turkish attack against the Kurds in Syria. Israel must take the initiative and take advantage of overt and covert channels to support the Kurds. A strong Kurdish territory is security for Israel,” Golan said last week.

Senior Kurdish officials welcomed Israel’s support, noting they have never threatened Israel or questioned its right to exist, and they have striven to provide competent and stable governance for territory under their control.

Analyst John Saleh told Voice of America News (VOA) the Kurds should not rely on Israel too heavily because some Muslims in the region are already inclined to view the Kurds as merely puppets of the hated Israelis.

“If Israel has a plan to support the Kurds, it should execute right away. Otherwise, the consequences for the Kurds of this perceived association with Israel could be severe under the new Islamist regime in Damascus,” Saleh said.

Kurdish officials are nominally in favor of opening a “dialogue” with Turkey and helping to heal Syria after 13 years of bitter factional conflicts, but they do not seem optimistic about their chances of convincing Erdogan to back down. 

Asked about the possibilities for dialogue, a Turkish official told Reuters that the “PKK-YPG is a terrorist organization” that must “lay down their arms and leave Syria.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was on the same page this weekend, declaring the new Syria has no room for Kurdish militants, so the YPG and another group allied with the United States, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), should immediately disband.

Fidan lambasted the international community for “turning a blind eye” to the “illegal” actions of the YPG and SDF. He called on America and Europe to stop supporting Kurdish militias in Syria.

On a decidedly ominous note, Fidan said the HTS government in Damascus can manage the huge prison camps where Islamic State jihadis are incarcerated — camps that have long been managed by the SDF.

“When you look at this from the perspective of U.S. interests, when you do the math, is Turkey important or is a terrorist group like the PKK important? Mr. Trump sees the math right away,” Fidan said, anticipating a shift in U.S. policy under the returning President Donald Trump.

Fidan made his remarks after meeting with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who said after the meeting that he expected Kurdish militias to disarm and submit to the new Syrian Defense Ministry.

“We will not allow any weapons to be outside the state, whether from the revolutionary factions or from the factions present in the SDF region,” Sharaa said.

In the United States, Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced bipartisan legislation last Friday to sanction Turkey for its military campaign against the Kurds of northern Syria.

“Attacks by Turkish-backed forces on our Syrian Kurdish partners undermine regional security and efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence,” argued Van Hollen.

The Kurds do not appear inclined to lay down their weapons and surrender to Turkey. On Tuesday, the SDF announced it has launched a counter-offensive against the SNA, with the goal of recapturing Manbij and other territory seized by Turkey’s allies. 

“Syria is now in a new phase, and discussions are underway about the future of the country. Turkey is trying, through its attacks, to distract us with battles and exclude us from the negotiations in Damascus,” said Ruken Jamal, spokesperson for the Kurdish Women’s Protection Unit (YPJ).