WRC title contenders set for “lottery” championship showdown
by Tom Howard · AutosportElfyn Evans, Sebastien Ogier and Kalle Rovanpera share their thoughts ahead of what is expected to be a thrilling three-way title fight
The fight for the 2025 World Rally Championship title is teetering on a knife-edge with three drivers set to do battle for the coveted crown on brutal and unknown Saudi Arabian stages.
The WRC’s new Saudi Arabia finale is likely to offer up perhaps the most unpredictable title decider in decades with Toyota trio Elfyn Evans, Sebastien Ogier and Kalle Rovanpera all in contention for glory on unique terrain that will provide the toughest conditions of the season.
Saudi Arabia will serve up a blend of mountain, volcano and desert terrain all unknown to the title contenders. Some of the gravel roads are expected to be relatively smooth and fast with a hard base, while desert sandy sections will be softer, but lined with razor sharp rocks.
Bedrock emerging through the road surface will also increase the risk of damage to the cars and punctures. The conditions will be as close as the WRC will come to experiencing Dakar Rally-like stages. Friday’s Wadi Almatwi stage has been shortened by three kilometres following a request from drivers due to its extreme conditions.
As a result, it is likely that a compromise in both driving style and car set up will be required to successfully navigate. Championship leader Elfyn Evans, who heads the title race by three points from Ogier, summed it up best: “Of course the title has a high chance of being decided on who has the least amount of problems, but let’s see how it plays out.”
Evans: I have nothing to lose
Evans is vying for a career-defining maiden WRC title - a feat that would see him become Britain’s third world champion alongside Colin McRae [1995] and Richard Burns [2001].
The four-time WRC title runner-up has built his season on a fast start to the campaign, taking wins in Sweden and Kenya which he followed up with impeccable consistency. The Welshman is the only driver yet to make a major mistake and has finished every rally inside the top six.
In Evans’ mind he feels he has nothing to lose but is wary of the challenge that awaits: “Everything is fine but naturally it is quite challenging and very mixed. There are soft sections, rocky sections, it is unpredictable.
“I don’t think whether you are first or fourth on the road, I don’t think it will matter how many loose rocks you will face. Only to do the best [that is our goal]. We will drive as fast as we can but be clean. It will be like that. I have got nothing to lose really, let’s see.”
Ogier hoping for the best in “lottery” conditions
The prospect of scoring a ninth world title to match Sebastien Loeb is the prize dangling in front of Ogier this weekend.
The 41-year-old has been operating at his very best this year to score six wins that has hauled himself into an unexpected title fight, despite sitting out three rallies. However, Ogier has made it clear that he would prefer for the title fight to be played out in a different arena given how unpredictable the stages will be this weekend.
Ogier is particularly concerned by the loose rocks that will appear in the second pass through stages that won’t be in his pacenotes.
“Obviously I’m excited to fight for the championship on the last rally and that is the situation you are fighting the whole year for,” said the Frenchman. “At the same time, facing the rally and these conditions we have this weekend, we know there are many elements we won’t control and that is not giving me the best feeling.
"I’m sure all of us would prefer to fight this title somewhere else but here we are. We have to do the best with what we can control and hope for the best for what we cannot control.”
“I would say yes [the roads are worse than expected] as I was hoping to have a harder base,” he added.
“Having such a soft base with many rocks is so difficult because you have no idea when they are going to pull out in the second passes. That is not nice. You can do the best preparation you want and work even more with onboard videos than normal to be ready, but what will happen on the second pass will be unpredictable. That will be a lottery.”
Rovanpera plans to go for it but will need luck on his side
If the finale was to be held in a rally venue well known to the crews, Rovanpera’s chances of securing a third world title would be regarded as slim, being 24 points behind Evans with 35 left available.
But given the nature of what lies ahead, there is still a real chance the 25-year-old could sign off his WRC career and head to Super Formula next year as world champion.
“I feel quite good,” he said, “obviously it is going to be a very interesting and demanding rally even more tough than what it looked from the videos. It is going to be super rough not all the time, but in many many places.
“I don’t think I need to think about the plan too much. Obviously you need to be fast, but here you need to avoid punctures and problems, that is clear. I will go for it and try to keep the car and the tyres in one piece, and then for sure you can have a good weekend here if you don’t have problems.
“It is not about pure pace now, you will need a lot of luck also, more than other rough rallies because I don’t think we have ever seen so many loose stones than what we have here. Every corner can be a surprise so you will need some luck on your side.
“I don’t have any big pressure on my shoulders. I don’t need to do anything special than just have the best result I can and at the end of the rally we will see what I get with that.”
The key to taming Saudi Arabia’s stages
If there is one driver that knows how to tame Saudi Arabia’s blend of rocky roads and sandy stages it is 20-time Middle East Rally Champion and five-time Dakar Rally winner Nasser Al-Attiyah.
The 54-year-old is making a return to the WRC this weekend with M-Sport-Ford after a 10-year absence. The Qatari is arguably the best placed driver to understand the challenges that lie ahead of the WRC field and how best to survive the brutal conditions.
Al-Attiyah is widely tipped to be in the running for a podium, such is the weight placed on his skill and experience on these roads.
"It is really nice to jump back in the rally car and I was really surprised by the speed and how the downforce works. I didn’t want to miss this rally," Al-Attiyah told Autosport.
“I would like to be on the podium but you need to be smart for this race. Speed is not everything because it is so difficult, there are a lot of loose rocks. Here if you push a lot you will have a problem.
“If you take less risk you will have less punctures and damage and you will have a good result. This rally will be a big fight for the top drivers. I know the secrets but you must have a good strategy.”
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- The Autosport.com Team