Low Turnout and Close Race Set Up Bulgaria's Presidential Runoff

Bulgaria’s presidential election is heading for a runoff between Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov, with parallel vote counts placing the two tickets in the lead and turnout remaining low, according to polling agencies and reports by BGNES and NOVA.

New exit poll puts Gyurov ahead of Yotova by 0.8%

The parallel counts, commissioned and funded by NOVA, put Yotova and her running mate Kiril Valchev ahead of Gyurov and Georgi Kandev, although the estimates vary between agencies. The second round is expected next Sunday.

With 100% of the sample processed, Trend Agency gave Yotova and Valchev 36.5% and Gyurov and Kandev 31.0%. Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin received 12.3%, followed by Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov with 4.0%, Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva with 3.7%, and Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova with 2.2%. Other candidates together accounted for 5.8%, while 4.5% chose the ballot option “I do not support anyone.” Estimated turnout was 22.1%.

Myara Agency’s 100% parallel count put Yotova and Valchev at 35.0%, ahead of Gyurov and Kandev at 31.9%. Kostadinov and Volgin received 12.4%, Vasilev and Manov 4.3%, Mihaylov and Mateeva 3.5%, and Hristanov and Cherkezova 2.2%. Other candidates shared 6.1%, while 4.6% of voters selected “I do not support anyone.” Turnout was estimated at 22.2%.

Alpha Research’s completed parallel count gave Yotova and Valchev 34.6% and Gyurov and Kandev 32.7%. Kostadinov and Volgin ranked third with 12.6%, followed by Vasilev and Manov with 4.1%, Mihaylov and Mateeva with 3.8%, and Hristanov and Cherkezova with 2.7%. A further 4.6% selected “I do not support anyone,” and turnout stood at 22.5% as of 8 p.m.

Other exit-poll estimates also showed the two leading tickets advancing to a runoff, but their vote shares differed. Alpha Research put Yotova at 35.3% and Gyurov at 32.4%, with Kostadinov at 12.6%, Vasilev at 4.1%, Mihaylov at 3.5% and Hristanov at 2.2%. Market Links estimated 32.2% for Yotova, 31.6% for Gyurov, 13.5% for Kostadinov, 4.4% for Vasilev, 3.5% for Mihaylov and 2.5% for Hristanov.

Gallup’s estimates were 36.6% for Yotova, 31.8% for Gyurov, 15.7% for Kostadinov, 3.1% for Vasilev, 2.7% for Mihaylov and 2.6% for Hristanov. Myara’s figures were 35.2%, 32.2%, 13.4%, 3.9%, 3.2% and 1.6%, respectively.

BGNES described the first round as marked by record-low turnout, a weaker-than-expected performance by presumed frontrunner Yotova and a breakthrough for Gyurov and Kandev.

National turnout was 16.04% by 4 p.m., according to the Central Election Commission (CEC), compared with 24.12% at the same time during the 2021 presidential election. The highest participation was recorded in Sofia’s 23rd electoral district, at 25.9%, while Kardzhali had the lowest rate, at 6.77%.

By the afternoon, the CEC had received four formal complaints and 50 reports of irregularities. A total of 23 voting machines nationwide had stopped working, requiring voters to switch to paper ballots.

The election day was characterized by low participation, criticism of the campaign and competing visions for Bulgaria’s future. Candidates and political leaders urged citizens to vote and outlined their priorities for the country and the presidency.

Iliana Yotova said she had voted for Bulgaria’s progress, peace, stability and security, calling for an end to division and hatred. She said the next president should unite citizens and institutions, identifying poverty, inequality and demographic disparities as major challenges. Development, she argued, must reach remote areas as well as large cities. Yotova also explained that she had chosen to meet voters in towns and villages rather than hold direct debates with her opponents.

Gyurov said his vote was for a Bulgaria focused on its children and working people who follow the rules but remain worried about their incomes and their families’ futures. He called for a European, free and proud country where earnings provide security and the state fulfills its responsibilities. Describing his campaign as open and honest, he said his meetings with citizens had given him hope.

Kostadinov urged voters to put Bulgaria’s national interests first, saying he had voted for the well-being of the Bulgarian people. He encouraged participation as a way for citizens to shape their own future and expressed hope for higher turnout and a choice in favor of a free and independent Bulgaria.

Rumen Radev also called on citizens to vote, arguing that the legitimacy of state institutions comes from the ballot box. He said Bulgaria needed a president with knowledge, experience, clear positions and principles at a time of uncertainty.

Radev criticized what he described as smear tactics and staged events during the campaign. He said the oligarchy was losing control over public procurement and financial flows, adding that escalating conflicts reflected competition over shrinking resources. He also pledged that the state would continue to uncover crimes and hold those responsible accountable.

GERB leader Boyko Borissov blamed low participation on the absence of a candidate capable of uniting the nation and what he called an exceptionally weak campaign. He said voters could see candidates associated with individual parties but were not hearing messages that would motivate them to cast ballots. Borissov also pointed to possible fears about machine voting and concerns over repression in recent weeks.

Asen Vassilev, chairman of We Continue the Change, urged citizens to elect a president they would not be ashamed of, emphasizing that presidential powers should be exercised responsibly and transparently.

Ivaylo Mirchev, co-chairman of Yes, Bulgaria, said he supported a president who would hold the government accountable rather than act as its extension. He stressed Bulgaria’s European orientation, its membership in the EU and NATO, and the need to avoid international isolation.

Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev said the election had passed without serious violations, describing the day as calm and free of the usual practices of vote-buying and vote manipulation.

“The elections proceeded calmly, free from the typical practices of vote-buying and vote manipulation. This did not lead us to lower our guard over the past month; we aimed to nip such attempts in the bud,” Demerdzhiev said after polling stations closed.

He added that authorities had maintained their vigilance despite receiving fewer reports than in previous elections, saying the country could hold a democratic vote.

Lyubomir Nikolov, chief secretary of the Ministry of Interior, said more than 17,000 personnel had been deployed to protect polling stations. Gendarmerie units and specialized response teams were kept on standby to respond to reports. Northwestern Bulgaria and the Burgas region generated the largest numbers of alerts.

The Interior Ministry received 242 reports in total, leading to the opening of six pretrial proceedings.