Trump may need Iran compromise to reopen Strait of Hormuz

US and Iranian officials say they are close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome could unsettle Trump politically while shaping oil flows and global shipping.

In Short

• Roughly one-fifth of global oil normally moves through the critical waterway
• Commercial shipping remains exposed as Iran retains drone and missile strike capability
• War-related disruption has lifted fuel costs and deepened broader economic worries

US President Donald Trump may have to do something unusual for him to secure a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: compromise. The two sides say an agreement is close, but the main dispute is over control of the strategically important waterway, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil normally passes.

Any concession would come at a difficult political moment for Trump, who has rejected suggestions that his poll numbers have weakened, the economy has slowed and US stockpiles of some key weapons have fallen after the Iran war he launched with Israel more than five months ago. Analysts and former officials say pressure from shipping disruption, higher fuel prices and the wider economic fallout could shape his next move.

The Trump administration has ruled out any arrangement that would formalise Iran’s grip over the strait, including allowing Tehran to charge fees. Iran, however, has insisted on some level of control and says the strait will not return to being an open international waterway as it was before the war. Despite thousands of US strikes, Iran still has the ability to fire drones and missiles at vessels, leaving commercial shipping exposed.

"He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a loser," said Eliot Cohen, who served as counsellor of the State Department in the George W Bush administration. "And the image of being a loser, I think, would be intolerable for him." Cohen said giving ground to Iran would be hard for Trump even if the conflict keeps petrol prices high and creates problems for Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

David Schenker, a former State Department official in Trump’s first administration, said the growing economic pressure could push the president towards a compromise, even if it would have major implications for global trade. "There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis," said Schenker, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "This is a concession he may very well be willing to make."

Trump has so far conceded little in public about the war. In a social media post on Thursday, he said the US military still has "massive amounts" of weapons and that large quantities are being manufactured. He also threatened jail time for alleged "leakers" of information on the country’s weapons stockpiles. He was responding to a Washington Post report that said he had expressed frustration with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over shrinking inventories of advanced weapons during a Cabinet gathering at Camp David last week.

A senior administration official said there had been a "robust and healthy" discussion about Iran at that meeting, but declined to give details, apart from saying there had not been a "knock-down, drag-out fight" over the issue. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Experts say the US military is running short of weapons such as advanced missile interceptors used to defend American troops from Iranian attacks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has published reports on declining inventories based on budget documents and other public information.

Asked later about weapons stockpiles, Trump told reporters that "we need more all the time". He said some kinds of munitions are in "virtually unlimited supply" while others are "a little bit tighter", without giving specifics. He added: "We’re in great shape. But, with that being said, we always want more. We have to have more," and said the military could draw on US munitions supplies around the world if required. Hegseth was on Capitol Hill this week meeting Republican senators privately as he sought support for billions of dollars in additional Pentagon spending under a major Republican budget package.

Senator Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat and former Navy pilot, said the weapons shortfall was the result of a war that lacked a clearly defined goal and strategy beyond striking more than 14,000 targets. "My contention on this is, if you knew what the goal is, maybe the target list would have been 500 targets. Maybe it would have been 200 targets," Kelly said, adding that the Pentagon wants "billions and billions of dollars to fix their self-inflicted problem."

Trump has also claimed that his polling numbers are the best "they have ever been", citing employment figures and the "Denuclearization of Iran" in a social media post on Tuesday. But a late July poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about two-thirds of US adults said the war with Iran had not been worthwhile. That included most Democrats and independents, as well as about 37 per cent of Republicans. On jobs, the United States had nearly 159 million non-farm jobs in June, a record, but job growth has slowed considerably in Trump’s second term.

Trump has continued to say that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping. On Thursday, he said the strait was "sort of open right now" and pointed to the Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports. "But they can always shoot something, they always have something or drop a mine," Trump said of Iran. "And if you have one mine sitting out there, you sort of mess things up because people don’t want to take their billion-dollar boats and accidentally get hit by a mine."

According to maritime data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence, at least two ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, while several others reported near misses or warnings from entities claiming to represent Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Vessel traffic through the strait rose to 84 transits last week from 45 the previous week, but remained far below the more than 700 transits seen in a typical week before the crisis, the company said.

US and Iranian officials say they are close to a deal to reopen the strait, even as the US military maintains that a route it helps oversee near Oman’s coast "remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway". The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that the possible arrangement is being presented as a temporary solution under which ships would enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani-controlled route.

The Trump administration has repeatedly said it opposes any arrangement under which Iran would charge fees. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorised to comment publicly, said on Thursday that any temporary routes through the waterway would not involve tolls, charges or other impediments. The official added that Trump’s preferred option is diplomacy and that he "holds all the cards" in dealing with Iran. As talks continue, the issue remains whether Trump can strike a deal to restore shipping through the strait without accepting the kind of concession he has tried to avoid.

With PTI Inputs

- Ends