Oil and gas giants eye bigger profits as their emissions worsen heatwaves

Big Oil is set to pocket $45 billion in profits in the April-June quarter, even as new analysis links the historical emissions of major oil giants to conditions behind roughly one in four global heatwaves since 2000. As temperatures soar and profits surge, experts weigh who should bear the cost of a warming planet.

In Short

• Big six oil firms set to earn $45bn in April-June, nearly double last quarter
• Historical emissions linked to 1 in 4 global heatwaves since 2000, says Oxfam
• Experts stress shared responsibility among producers, consumers, and govts

The world's six biggest oil and gas companies are on track to earn a combined $45 billion during the April-June quarter, nearly double their earnings from the previous quarter, even as their historical emissions have been linked to conditions that made roughly one in four heatwaves recorded globally since 2000 possible, according to a new Oxfam analysis.

The projected earnings, released by Oxfam ahead of the companies' quarterly results, come after global oil prices surged during the April-June period following the conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran.

BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies are expected to nearly double their combined quarterly profits from $23 billion in January-March to $45 billion, while their projected full-year profits of $147 billion would exceed what they earned over the previous seven quarters.

BILLIONS IN PROFITS, A GROWING CLIMATE BILL

Oxfam estimates that Chevron's profits will be more than four times higher than in the previous quarter, while ExxonMobil's earnings will more than triple.

ExxonMobil is expected to have earned around $1,800 every second during the quarter. Chevron is projected to have made $1,200 every second, while Shell is estimated to have earned $1,000 every second.

The non-profit organisation also estimates that the six companies were associated with around $60 billion in direct and indirect environmental damage in 2025, using emissions data from S&P Capital Trucost.

'THEIR EMISSIONS LINKED TO 1 IN 4 HEATWAVES'

The report's central finding draws on peer-reviewed research published in the journal Nature, which examined 213 heatwaves worldwide between 2000 and 2023.

According to Oxfam, the historical emissions of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies were each individually sufficient to contribute to conditions that made roughly one in four of those heatwaves possible.

The study found that 55 of the 213 heatwaves would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.

Data for Italy-based Eni was unavailable.

Prof Rajiv Chaturvedi, Associate Professor at BITS Pilani and a lead author for the IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report (Working Group II), said the report's interpretation broadly reflected the findings of the Nature study, though Oxfam's specific calculations should be independently verified.

"The science is very robust. There is a linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial times and global temperature rise. Heatwaves are among the easiest extreme weather events to attribute to climate change because climate change is fundamentally about rising temperatures," he said.

He added that because carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries, historical emissions from major fossil fuel producers continue contributing to warming today, making attribution to individual companies scientifically reasonable.

The report also found that the world's 180 largest fossil fuel and cement producers accounted for roughly half of the increase in global heatwave intensity since pre-industrial times.

The five oil majors alone contributed around 8 per cent of that increase, with their historical emissions accounting for about 0.1°C of global warming in 2023.

INDIA AMONG THE HARDEST HIT

The report comes as extreme heat continues to batter parts of South Asia, Europe and North America.

India and Pakistan have endured prolonged heatwaves in 2026. In May, 97 of the world's 100 hottest cities were in India, underlining the country's growing exposure to climate extremes.

"As extreme heat, floods and storms devastate communities across the world, the industry is preparing another bonanza of profits. Families are paying the price three times over: through destroyed homes and harvests, through soaring energy prices, and through a cost-of-living crisis worsened by dependence on fossil fuels," said Mariana Paoli, Oxfam's Climate Policy Lead.

EXPERTS URGE CAUTION ON ATTRIBUTION

While agreeing that fossil fuel emissions remain the dominant driver of climate change, independent experts cautioned against attributing responsibility solely to oil companies.

Prof Sounak Roy, Dean (Research and Innovation) at BITS Pilani, described the Oxfam report as "an advocacy document" built on broadly accepted climate science.

"It is scientifically well established that anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of many heatwaves," he said.

However, he noted that while the oil industry had made a significant contribution, it was not the only source of greenhouse gas emissions. Coal, natural gas, cement production, deforestation, agriculture, transport and other industrial activities have also driven global warming.

Nick Lowes, Vice President for Strategic Climate and Energy Initiatives at S&P Global Energy, argued that responsibility extends beyond producers.

"Oil and gas companies provide the products consumers demand. In that respect, responsibility for the resulting emissions lies as much with end users as with the suppliers of the fuels we consume," he said.

INVESTING IN THE TRANSITION: INDUSTRY

Responding to criticism of the sector, Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director for Energy Transition Consulting at S&P Global Energy, said many energy companies were investing in emissions reduction while balancing energy security.

She said more than 150 oil and gas companies have committed to methane reductions under the UN's Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), while many are also investing in renewable power, cleaner fuels and electrification.

Highlighting India's energy sector, Jauhar pointed to ONGC's target of developing 10 GW of renewable energy by 2030, Indian Oil Corporation's plans to build 31 GW of renewable capacity, expand sustainable aviation fuel research and EV charging infrastructure, and GAIL's decision to sharply increase renewable energy spending while adopting Scope 3 emissions targets.

"These examples demonstrate the portfolio approach energy companies are taking in response to changing consumer choices," she said, arguing that investment decisions ultimately depend on what consumers are willing to pay for during the energy transition.

Chaturvedi said the industry's transition was moving in the right direction but not quickly enough.

"They are making efforts, but they must do much more. Fossil fuels remain commercially attractive because they are reliable, but companies should invest far more aggressively in research and development to overcome the technological barriers that still limit renewable energy," he said.

PRODUCTION IS STILL RISING

Despite these transition plans, Oxfam said the six companies still intend to increase oil and gas production by 14 per cent by 2030, compared with 2024 levels, equivalent to an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.

The organisation warned that even a 6 per cent increase in global oil and gas production could push end-of-century warming to around 2.9°C.

At the same time, it noted that investment in low-carbon energy is slowing.

BP has cut its planned low-carbon investment by 73 per cent, while Shell has reduced its clean energy spending target by 37 per cent, even as fossil fuel production plans continue to expand.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

The Oxfam analysis emphasise a growing contradiction at the heart of the global energy transition. While the world's biggest oil companies continue to reap windfall profits from fossil fuels, the climate impacts linked to their historical emissions are becoming increasingly visible.

As attribution science advances, researchers are becoming increasingly able to quantify how individual companies have contributed to rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves.

At the same time, experts caution that responsibility does not rest with producers alone. Consumers, governments and industry all have a role in cutting emissions, even as oil majors face mounting pressure to accelerate investment in cleaner energy.

The challenge is no longer recognising climate risks. It is ensuring the transition away from fossil fuels keeps pace with the mounting costs of a warming planet.

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