Iran warns US bases in Europe will be attacked. Which countries are at risk?

Iran has warned that US military bases across Europe could face missile strikes if they are used to attack the Islamic republic. From Britain and Germany to Italy and France, several European nations could find themselves caught in Tehran's firing line in the event of an Iranian retaliation.

Iran's top security official has warned that Tehran could expand its list of military targets to include US bases in European countries if those installations are used to launch airstrikes against Iran. In an interview with Lebanon-based broadcaster Al Mayadeen on Thursday, Major General Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that any fresh American attack on Iran could prompt Tehran’s forces to "even target some American military bases in European countries".

While Iran has attacked countries hosting US bases in the Middle East with missiles and drones, continental Europe is at a distance of over 3,000 km. Iran threatens to target American assets nearby because the US is over 11,000 km away.

This is not the first time Iranian officials, both civilian and military, have threatened to strike European countries hosting American forces. Earlier in November, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, told France-based broadcaster Euronews, "If America uses its bases in Europe, including in Italy and Germany, Iran's missiles will be fired towards Europe." Even before the current war began on February 28 this year, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had issued a similar warning during an interview with Qatar-based Al Jazeera.

Nevertheless, the threat of Iranian retaliation against American military installations in Europe is being taken seriously in the West. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that US Air Force refuelling aircraft stationed at an airbase in the UK were hastily evacuated amid Iranian threats.

European countries have hosted American troops since the end of World War II. Initially deployed on the continent as an occupying force following the defeat of Nazi Germany and its allies, US forces have since evolved into a critical pillar of Europe's security architecture, including through the Nato alliance. Even today, thousands of American troops, along with military equipment and aircraft, remain stationed across Europe to deter potential threats and support US military operations worldwide.

This extensive American military presence is also what risks drawing Europe into Tehran's line of fire if Iran retaliates against a US attack.

UK, GERMANY, ITALY, MOST LIKELY TO BE TARGETED IN IRANIAN RETALIATION

The UK hosts several major US military installations, including RAF Fairford, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath. Fairford is used by American strategic bombers, Mildenhall hosts aerial refuelling aircraft, while Lakenheath is home to US fighter squadrons.

In July, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) explicitly warned that any British base used by Washington to attack Iran, including RAF Fairford, would be considered a "legitimate target". It accused London of facilitating American military operations against Tehran.

The security concerns intensified in September when British counterterrorism police investigated a suspected plot near RAF Fairford, including a possible Iranian connection. On November 9, nine US KC-135 refuelling aircraft and three Ospreys were moved out of RAF Mildenhall following a reported Iran-linked threat, according to Sky News and The Wall Street Journal. The exact nature of the threat remains unclear.

Germany, meanwhile, hosts two major American military installations, Ramstein and Spangdahlem. Ramstein is a major US Air Force mobility and logistics hub, while Spangdahlem hosts American fighter aircraft.

On November 3, Iranian newspaper Hamshahri identified US military installations in Germany, including Ramstein and Spangdahlem, on a map of potential targets in the event of renewed conflict with Washington.

Separately, Reuters reported on October 8 that Israeli intelligence had warned Germany and the US about a potential Iranian threat to American bases in the country. The warning reportedly focused on Ramstein and Spangdahlem, which support US military operations and logistics. Germany was also monitoring increased Iranian activity, Reuters reported.

Italy hosts major American military facilities, including Aviano Air Base and Naval Air Station Sigonella. Aviano hosts US fighter squadrons, while Sigonella is an important hub for American naval aviation, surveillance and logistical operations.

Both installations were identified in Hamshahri's November 3 map of potential targets. The newspaper's illustration identified American military facilities across nine European countries as possible targets in the event of another confrontation with the US.

On November 4, Iranian parliamentarian Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani explicitly named Italy and Germany, warning that if Washington used its military bases in those countries to attack Iran, Tehran would fire missiles towards Europe. He also warned that countries assisting American military operations could face consequences.

OTHER EUROPEAN NATIONS ALSO AT RISK

Beyond the UK, Germany and Italy, Iranian media have identified several other European countries as potential locations for retaliation. These include France, Greece, Romania, Albania, Portugal and Cyprus. On November 3, Tehran Municipality-affiliated newspaper Hamshahri published a map marking American military installations across these nine European countries as potential targets in the event of another war with the US.

France hosts the Istres Air Base, while Greece has the strategically important Souda Bay naval facility in Crete, which is used by American and Nato forces. In Cyprus, the British-controlled RAF Akrotiri is a key facility for Western surveillance and military support operations in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. All three locations featured on the Iranian newspaper's map.

The other countries identified were Romania, which hosts the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, Albania, home to the NATO air base at Kucove, and Portugal, where the US uses Lajes Field in the Azores islands for air transit and logistical support.

Tehran's threats, however, are no iron-clad guarantee that American bases in France or Germany will go up in flames. It remains unclear how Iran would attempt to strike these installations — through long-range missile attacks, which could be intercepted, or by deploying operatives in Europe to sabotage American military facilities.

Nevertheless, the repeated Iranian attacks on Gulf countries since February 28 demonstrate Tehran's willingness to strike even ostensibly neutral nations if it believes doing so could undermine America's military capabilities, something European leaders may want to keep in mind.

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