Rain coming: Southwest monsoon to enter India, hit Kerala on May 27

The forecast carries a margin of error of plus or minus four days, meaning the monsoon could arrive anywhere between May 22 and May 30.

In Short

• Monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala by May 26, six days early
• Kerala is first to get monsoon, signalling rains moving northwards
• IMD's forecast model has been historically accurate except in 2015

The wait for India's life-giving monsoon may be shorter than usual this year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a press release on May 15 forecasting that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, nearly six days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.

The forecast carries a margin of error of plus or minus four days, meaning the monsoon could arrive anywhere between May 22 and May 30.

The announcement comes as large parts of India are dealing with severe heat waves.

Rajasthan's Barmer recorded a scorching 47.3°C as recently as May 11, while heatwave alerts have been in force across Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of the south.

For millions of Indians, the monsoon's arrival cannot come soon enough.

WHY KERALA ANNOUNCES ARRIVAL OF MONSOON

Kerala is always the first Indian state to receive the southwest monsoon, making its onset date one of the most closely watched weather events of the year.

The monsoon's arrival in Kerala marks the formal end of the brutal pre-summer season and signals the gradual northward march of rain across the subcontinent, a progression that typically covers all of India by mid-July.

The IMD has been issuing official forecasts for Kerala's monsoon onset date every year since 2005, using a specially developed statistical model that analyses six key atmospheric signals, including wind patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans, temperature trends in northwest India, and radiation levels over the South China Sea.

Over the past 21 years, the model's predictions have been accurate in all but one year, that is 2015.

A RELIABLE PREDICTION

Recent years aptly illustrate the model's reliability.

In 2025, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 24, three days ahead of the IMD's forecast of May 27, well within the four-day error margin.

Similarly, in 2024, it arrived on May 30 against a forecast of May 31.

In 2022, it came in on May 29 against a prediction of May 27.

If this year's forecast holds, the monsoon's early arrival would also be consistent with a broader trend of earlier-than-normal onsets observed in recent years, as in 2022, 2024, and 2025.

Furthermore, all these years saw the monsoon arrive in Kerala before June 1.

For a country where agriculture, water supply, and everyday life are deeply tied to the monsoon's rhythm, an early and well-distributed season would be welcome news indeed.

- Ends