Minute by minute: How Messi and Argentina turned the tide late to reach the World Cup final

England led for half an hour and dreamed of a first final since 1966. Two goals in the last six minutes, both set up by Lionel Messi, sent Argentina through to meet Spain on Sunday.

England was closer to a World Cup final than it had been in 60 years. The team was also, by almost every measure that matters, being outplayed.

A minute-by-minute reading of the semi-final tells the story the scoreboard hid. England took the lead in the 55th minute through Anthony Gordon. But Argentina kept coming. Two goals in six minutes and 24 seconds broke English hearts and settled a ferocious tie.

Match momentum data from FotMob, which tracks which side is pushing forward at any moment, gave Argentina 60 per cent of the game to England's 33 per cent. The expected goals count, a measure of chance quality, finished 1.95 to 0.53 in Argentina's favour, according to Opta. England was ahead on the scoreboard and behind almost everywhere else.

The match began in fury. Argentina made a physical start. The opening 30 minutes brought 12 fouls and not a single shot, a record for a World Cup match in data going back to 1966, according to Opta. Elliot Anderson was booked for fouling Messi, and Lisandro Martinez saw yellow for holding back Morgan Rogers.

England found its moment after the break. Gordon steered in Rogers' cross from the right in the 55th minute, and for half an hour the team held the lead, helped by a sharp Djed Spence challenge and two strong saves from Jordan Pickford.

The resistance did not hold. As England dropped deeper, Enzo Fernandez curled in an equaliser from outside the box in the 85th minute. In the second minute of stoppage time, substitute Lautaro Martinez headed home to complete the comeback. Messi set up both, taking his tally to 12 assists at World Cup finals, a record, according to Opta.

The late surge fit a pattern. Argentina had now scored 11 times from the 75th minute onward at this tournament.

Argentina plays Spain in the final on Sunday. England will drop into the third-place match against France a day earlier.

The scoreboard will show that England led for half an hour. The momentum line shows what the score did not: a tide that rose all night, and a team that was only ever a moment from turning it.

Data notes: Momentum is FotMob's modelled minute-by-minute play index, not an official statistic. Expected goals and match events are from Opta. Results, scorers, and fixtures are per FIFA.

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