The Madman Theory: Is Trump's insane behaviour a strategy for Iran war and ceasefire?

In his constant warnings to Iran, US President Donald Trump might be following the Madman Theory that was used by former US President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War. What is the Madman Theory, and is the Iran war ceasefire a result of that?

In Short

• Trump's threats to Iran revived talks of the Madman Theory
• Trump acting irrationally might have pushed Iran to hit pause
• But Iran might be the wrong target for a strategy built on fear

US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Tuesday, saying, "The whole civilisation will die tonight." This warning from Trump came after Iran rejected ceasefire talks with the US. That was just hours before a deadline set by him for Iran was about to expire. Within hours, the world got to know that a ceasefire deal had been reached, with the war in the Middle East likely paused for two weeks.

Trump has been repeatedly warning Iran. On Sunday, the US president issued an expletive-laden post warning the Iranian leadership of striking Iran's power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. The threat to destroy a "whole civilisation" was seen as a threat that could bring war crimes charges. It was a threat that forced people to discuss the mental condition of Donald Trump.

Not that Trump's mental abilities haven't been discussed earlier. But with the frequency and quality of threats, Trump's brain functioning or the lack of it has come up for discussion all over again. But what if his irrational behaviour was a charade? That Trump was following a script for the Iran war?

Amid Trump's constant threat to Iran, an international expert and Waikato University Professor Al Gillespie has weighed in that Trump might be putting to practise the Madman Theory in an attempt to end the Iran war.

Speaking to Radio New Zealand (RNZ), the country's public broadcaster, Gillespie added, "Such actions would technically amount to war crimes, but he believed there was a deeper strategy at play."

The Madman Theory is a concept used by leaders to gain an advantage in negotiations or conflicts by deliberately projecting an image of being irrational, unpredictable, volatile, or even crazy.

WHAT IS MADMAN THEORY? HAS IT WORKED IN CASE OF IRAN?

This theory was proposed by American economists Daniel Ellsberg and Thomas Schelling in their book, The Strategy of Conflict. The theory became widely known during the Vietnam War, when then US President Richard Nixon reportedly told his aide, "I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe that I've reached the point that I might do anything to stop the war." He also tried to bluff the Vietnamese by showcasing that he had his hand on the nuclear button.

Experts have always been sceptical of the Madman Theory because it has never worked in favour of the leader or the country acting like crazy.

But it might just have worked in the case of Iran. The entire world was abuzz that Trump might hit the nuclear button. There was so much cold sweat that the White House had to issue a statement — nuclear weapons weren't on the menu.

That could have been the impact of the Madman Theory working in real life. The world was made to believe that Trump had reached the tipping point. That nothing, not even the nuclear option, was now beyond his plans. And then, came the two-week ceasefire.

TRUMP'S PROFANE AND EXPLETIVE WARNINGS: A STRATEGY?

However, Gillespie, who spoke to RNZ before the Iran-US ceasefire, expressed his concern and ambiguity about Trump's threats. He feared that Trump might not be bluffing.

Julie Norman, Professor of Politics at University College London, also raised the uncertainty of Trump's decision in 2025, when there was a rift emerged between Trump and the Nato. "It is very hard to know what's coming from day to day, and that has always been Trump's approach," she said.

If Trump is really using the Madman Theory strategy, then the International expert Gillespie speculates that Iran would further increase strikes against infrastructure in the Middle East and also would continue to choke the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, you have an entirely different result. There is a ceasefire which Iran wasn't looking keen on, in the first place. The truth is that Trump needed the ceasefire more than Iran needed it. And practising the Madman Theory might have helped in reaching the ceasefire. We can but speculate.

IS MADMAN THEORY SUITED FOR USE AGAINST IRAN?

Gillespie argued that if Trump was really using the Madman Theory in the Iran war, then he was employing the strategy against the wrong opponent. "The issue with Trump's use of the strategy in the case of Iran is that it relies upon a rational opposition," Gillespie said.

After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran adopted Sharia law as the foundation of its legal and governance system. Gillespie highlighted that, "In the case of either religious regimes or autocratic regimes, they often don't have that fear. And then there's the concern that they don't actually believe the person making the threat."

He expressed doubts about the strategy’s effectiveness, arguing that the Iranian regime is unlikely to be swayed, as it does not place significant weight on the impact of US actions on its people. "Iran feels emboldened by Mr. Trump's increasingly extreme rhetoric. I think they almost want it right now," he added. He believes that Iran would strike more as Trump warned of hitting the country.

Trump has been using surprises in the Iran war. He kept threatening and then extending the deadlines. Whether he knows at all about the Madman Theory or is consciously using it might not be known. If Trump is resorting to the Madman Theory then the two-week ceasefire announced on Wednesday in the Iran war is the most that he could have achieved from it. Iran can't be pushed further with such strategies. The Madman Theory works with sane people at both ends.

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