Iran says return to war with US unlikely as it reviews draft peace deal

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards says war with the US is unlikely, but they are prepared for attacks.
• Negotiations continue, but key issues like the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme remain unresolved.
• Despite an April truce, Israeli strikes killed 31 people, including four children, in southern Lebanon on May 26.

TEHRAN – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on May 27 that a return to war with the United States is unlikely, while warning that the Islamic republic stands ready against any attack.

The statement came a day after Iran accused the US of breaching the ceasefire in place since April, and warned that it was ready to retaliate after the most serious strikes since the truce took effect.

The Middle East war erupted in late February with US-Israeli strikes on Iran, spreading swiftly across multiple fronts and engulfing the region while throwing global energy markets into chaos.

“The possibility of war is low because of the enemy’s weakness. The armed forces are lying in wait with full magazines,” Mr Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political chief of the Revolutionary Guards’ navy, was quoted by Tasnim news agency as saying.

“Do not doubt that we will turn the area from Chabahar to Mahshahr into a graveyard for aggressors,” he said, naming places at each end of Iran’s lengthy southern coast.

Meanwhile, Tehran’s Intelligence Ministry said the US and Israel are still seeking to overthrow the government.

The ministry said it has evidence that the US and Israel plan to smuggle “various weapons, ammunition and illegal communication tools, especially Starlink” satellite internet devices, into Iran to foment religious and ethnic divisions and carry out sabotage missions.

Amid the bellicose rhetoric, Iran’s state TV said Tehran has received a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding with the US on ending the conflict.

Under the framework, Iran will restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the US will withdraw military forces from Iran’s vicinity and lift a naval blockade.

The framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in cooperation with Oman, has yet to be finalised, and Iran will not take steps without “tangible verification”, the report said.

It added that if a final agreement is reached within 60 days, it can be approved as a binding UN Security Council resolution.

The White House, however, said on May 27 that the report was “not true”, and that the memorandum it cited was “a complete fabrication”.

Iran and the US have, for weeks, been engaged in a war of words as they negotiate a deal with mediation efforts led by Pakistan.

With no clear winner in the war, neither side appears ready to compromise on the key sticking points in negotiations, which include the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that is vital to global energy flows, in retaliation for the war, while the US responded with a counter-blockade of Iranian ports.

On May 27, the Revolutionary Guards’ navy insisted that only ships “willing to abide by Iranian order” would be allowed to pass through the waterway.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on May 26 that a peace deal remains within reach, but that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened “one way or the other”.

Oil prices, which are still well above pre-war levels, fell on May 27 on rekindled hopes for progress in the US-Iran talks, with the international benchmark Brent North Sea crude dropping 5 per cent to US$94.61 a barrel.

Will there be missiles?

The Iranian authorities partially restored access to the internet on May 26 after a three-month shutdown.

“I do feel better now because I finally can use my favourite applications,” said Hana, a 20-year-old student in Tehran who gave only her first name. “At the same time, I have this concern that war might resume any minute and just cut me off again from my friends.”

Amir, a 27-year-old software developer, also said he feared renewed fighting.

“I feel like nothing is certain yet, even though the ceasefire is still ongoing and there is news of a possible agreement. But the daily question is, will there be missile strikes tonight?” he said.

There have been flare-ups during the ceasefire, with the most recent coming overnight on May 25 and 26, when the US military said it launched “self-defence strikes”, while providing few details.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused Washington of a “gross violation of the ceasefire”.

In a statement marking the start of the Eid al-Adha holiday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that Washington was losing its influence in the Middle East and warned countries in the region to stop hosting bases from which the US can launch attacks.

The US, he said in a written statement, “in addition to no longer having any safe haven in the region for aggression and the establishment of military bases, is moving further and further away from its former position with each passing day”.

Dozens dead in Lebanon

In southern Lebanon, Israel carried out strikes on May 26 that Beirut’s Health Ministry said killed 31 people, including at least four children.

Reporters at one strike site near the city of Tyre saw rescue workers removing debris on May 27 and carrying a white body bag from the rubble, which was strewn with household items like rugs and cushions.

Iran has demanded that any peace accord apply to Lebanon, where an April 17 truce has failed to stop fighting that began when militant group Hezbollah attacked Israel in early March.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on May 25 to crush Hezbollah, and an Israeli military official said the following day that Israel’s forces were expanding their ground operations in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel said on May 27 that it had killed Hamas’ newly appointed armed wing chief in Gaza, days after it killed his predecessor, while intensifying military pressure in Gaza.

The Israeli military said Mohammad Odeh was killed in an operation in Gaza on May 26. A relative confirmed his death.

Dozens of Palestinians carried his body through the streets of Gaza City in a funeral procession on May 27.

Mr Netanyahu said Odeh headed Hamas’ intelligence division at the time of the Oct 7, 2023, cross-border attack into Israel that triggered the Gaza war, and was appointed about a week ago to replace Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the group’s chief armed commander, who was killed by Israel on May 15. AFP, REUTERS