How Trump’s fragile agreement with Iran is shaping the midterms

NEW YORK – US President Donald Trump’s fragile agreement with Iran has introduced a new variable into the 2026 midterm elections.

Democratic candidates have assailed the agreement, arguing that the president accepted unfavourable terms to try to end an unnecessary war that hurt the economy.

Republicans have been more divided. Some, eager to turn the page on the unpopular war, are hailing falling gas prices and praising Trump for weakening Iran’s military capabilities. Others are expressing doubts about whether the president is likely to achieve the goals he set out to accomplish with the war.

Although the long-term durability of the accord was unclear, candidates in battleground states and leaders in both parties had already begun to develop new positions for a new chapter.

Republicans in tough races “have to be happy” that the fighting has stalled and that gas prices are falling after the deal, said Adrian Hemond, a Democratic consultant.

But, he added, “the Pandora’s box has been opened, and we’re not stuffing everything back inside at this point”.

Each twist with Iran has the potential to influence the midterms, which are less than five months away.

Trump’s approval ratings have sunk. Democrats believe they are well positioned to win back the House and have a shot at taking the Senate, too. Republicans are hopeful that the agreement with Iran will help them move on from a difficult first half of the year.

Representative Derrick Van Orden, a Republican from Wisconsin and a retired Navy SEAL who represents a swing district, said the deal would help block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and that energy prices would start normalising.

Still, there are fissures emerging among Republicans, and some conservative media outlets are questioning the agreement. An editorial in the New York Post was headlined “With Strait of Hormuz held hostage, Trump’s Iran deal is worse than Obama’s”.

As at this weekend, the average price of a gallon of gas in the United States had fallen 60 cents over the last month. But the price was still nearly a dollar higher than it was before Trump took the country to war and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping corridor, promptly closed. NYTIMES

• This article originally appeared in The New York Times.