Talk to Russia? Europe first seeks to agree on terms and envoy

LIMASSOL, Cyprus - With the United States distracted by Iran and Russian President Vladimir Putin appearing on the back foot, Europe is seriously weighing the possibility of talking to Moscow about ending the war in Ukraine.

But before they consider sitting down with the Kremlin, Kyiv’s European backers are first looking to decide what they want to discuss with Mr Putin – and who could represent them.

Trying to get a better picture of those goals and determining if talking to Russia is even realistic now is top of the agenda at a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Cyprus on May 28.

“Before we talk to the Russians, we should agree and talk amongst ourselves what we want to talk to the Russians about,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

The debate on re-engaging with Moscow has been getting louder as US efforts to end the bloodshed have hit a dead end and President Donald Trump’s attention has been consumed by Iran.

Ukraine is pushing for Europe – sidelined until now by Washington – to step in and play a bigger role.

“Europe must be involved in the negotiations. It is important for it to have a strong voice and presence in this process, and it is worth determining who will represent Europe specifically,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote in May.

On the other side, Mr Putin has also appeared to leave the door ajar, even if his suggestion that his long-time ally, former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, could represent Europe was roundly rejected.

Speculation over other potential envoys has picked up.

Another ex-German leader Angela Merkel – one of the architects of an earlier flawed Ukraine peace deal with Mr Putin – poured cold water on speculation she could fit the bill.

There is intense wariness in Europe about talking to Mr Putin after years of bitter enmity since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Ms Kallas, a hawkish former prime minister of Estonia, has pushed for months to set a series of red lines, seeking to bind countries together and avoid Moscow exploiting any gaps.

Among those is insisting that there has to be a ceasefire before talks happen, refusing to recognise Russian control over seized territories, and making sure Moscow is held accountable for its crimes.

EU officials said Ukraine’s foreign minister in May floated the idea that Europe could as a first step help broker a ceasefire in strikes on key infrastructure, such as airports.

But there is a reluctance for Europe to take over the role of neutral mediator from Washington.

“It is hard to see how the EU could become a mediator or broker in the talks and step in for the US, given how much we have supported Ukraine,” said one EU diplomat, talking on condition of anonymity.

EU officials say Mr Putin appears weakened as Russia’s economy sags, casualties climb and a long-range drone campaign by Ukraine takes its toll.

But there is widespread scepticism that he is serious about negotiating in good faith right now, with the Kremlin unleashing its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile at Kyiv in recent days.

“Russia is showing at this point no willingness for peace, the bombardments of the last week speak for themselves,” said European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

Chatter

Diplomats said the discussions in Cyprus were not expected to yield a definitive EU position or come up with a name to talk to Mr Putin.

Ms Kallas has made her pitch for the role, saying she could see through Russia’s “traps”, but some believe she is too reviled by the Kremlin to be involved.

Several diplomats said that if the representative cannot be found among the EU’s top officials, then it should be a head of state from one of the bloc’s 27 countries.

One name suggested to AFP was Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has forged good relations with Mr Trump on the golf course and has expressed interest in the role.

Despite the chatter picking up, there remains deep caution about reaching out to the Kremlin.

“Are we going to move at some point to the diplomatic effort? I can’t rule out anything, because things are changing,” Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said this week.

“Is this the right time? I doubt it. Is Russia ready? I doubt it.” AFP