Is cyclone by the end of October a rumour? Know what weather agencies predict

19 Oct 2026, 06:00 by Subadh Nayak · KalingaTV

Bhubaneswar: Is a cyclone approaching by the end of Odisha, or is it merely a rumor? What does the India Meteorological Department (IMD) say? What the signals of Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate?

Speculation has intensified regarding the potential formation of a powerful cyclone in the Bay of Bengal by the end week of the October. But what is the Meteorological Department actually saying? Is there any definitive indication that a cyclone is approaching?

According to the marine weather bulletin of the IMD, a cyclonic circulation is currently active over the west-central Bay of Bengal, near the coasts of southern Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. This system extends up to an altitude of approximately 7.6 kilometers above sea level. Under its influence, rain accompanied by thunderstorms—with the possibility of heavy rainfall in some areas—may occur over the west-central Bay of Bengal. However, the IMD has not issued any cyclone warnings.

Meanwhile, in an analysis released on October 9, the private weather agency Skymet stated that there were no signs of any major weather systems developing in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea until October 23. The agency did, however, suggest the possibility that the first cyclone of the season could form towards the end of the month or in November.

In another analysis dated October 15, Skymet noted that with the onset of the Northeast Monsoon over South India, rainfall is likely to increase in parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. Rainfall may continue between October 20 and 24, with a potential break in precipitation during the last week of the month.

There is also ongoing discussion regarding forecasts from international weather models, such as the American GFS and the European ECMWF. However, an analysis of the latest model runs from October 18 does not provide any reliable, consistent indication of a strong cyclone occurring during the final week.

Long-range forecasts from weather models are subject to change over time; therefore, it would be incorrect to treat the appearance of a cyclonic signal in any single model as a definitive forecast. The question now arises: will a new low-pressure area form in the Bay of Bengal in the coming days? And if it does, how intense will it become? We will have to wait for the next official forecast from the IMD to know this. There is currently insufficient evidence to claim that a severe cyclone approaching towards Odisha at the end of October.

Is cyclone by the end of October a rumour? Know what weather agencies predict

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