Did El Nino Alter Cyclone Arnab’s Track? What Caused Its Rapid Intensification? An Analysis, Watch

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Bhubaneswar: Did El Nino influence the track of Cyclone Arnab? How did it intensify so rapidly within a short period? These questions have brought renewed attention to the complex relationship between ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions and tropical cyclone behaviour.

Cyclone Arnab, which developed over the Bay of Bengal, reportedly originated as a low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal on October 23. The system subsequently intensified into a cyclonic storm on October 26 before rapidly gaining strength and developing into a very severe cyclonic storm.

The cyclone crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast during the early hours of Wednesday, with sustained wind speeds reportedly reaching 125–135 kmph and gusts touching 140 kmph.

Did El Nino influence Cyclone Arnab’s movement?

El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can influence atmospheric circulation, rainfall patterns and tropical cyclone activity across different parts of the world.

However, El Nino does not directly determine the path of an individual cyclone. The movement of tropical cyclones is primarily governed by large-scale atmospheric steering winds, pressure systems and surrounding weather conditions.

While broader climate patterns such as El Nino may influence the environment in which cyclones develop, determining whether the phenomenon played a significant role in Cyclone Arnab’s track would require a detailed meteorological analysis.

How did Cyclone Arnab intensify so rapidly?

Warm ocean water is one of the primary energy sources for tropical cyclones. Sea surface temperatures of approximately 26 degrees Celsius or higher generally provide favourable conditions for cyclone formation and intensification, although other atmospheric factors are equally important.

Low vertical wind shear, sufficient atmospheric moisture and favourable upper-level atmospheric circulation can further support rapid intensification.

Cyclone Arnab reportedly strengthened considerably within a short period, raising questions about the oceanic and atmospheric conditions that contributed to its development.

Why did Cyclone Arnab remain powerful after landfall?

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Tropical cyclones generally weaken after moving over land because they lose access to the warm ocean waters that supply much of their energy.

However, Cyclone Arnab reportedly maintained considerable intensity for nearly six hours after crossing the coast, resulting in heavy rainfall across several areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

The storm brought significant rainfall to coastal regions. According to the reported figures, Visakhapatnam recorded 217 mm of rainfall, Kalingapatnam received 147 mm, while Gopalpur in Odisha recorded 94 mm.

Ahead of the cyclone, more than 1.80 lakh people were reportedly evacuated from vulnerable areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha as part of precautionary measures.

Heavy rainfall continued after the cyclone weakened

Even after Cyclone Arnab weakened, its remnant circulation continued to pose a risk of heavy rainfall across parts of Odisha and other regions of eastern and central India.

The cyclone’s rapid intensification and movement towards Andhra Pradesh have once again highlighted the importance of understanding changing ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation and broader climate variability.

Although El Nino can influence cyclone activity on a seasonal scale, its specific contribution to Cyclone Arnab’s behaviour remains uncertain without scientific assessment.

The episode also underscores the importance of accurate weather forecasting, early warnings and disaster preparedness in reducing the risks associated with powerful tropical cyclones.

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