USD/JPY: To decline after a break below 151.05 – UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range, probably between 151.75 and 152.75. In the longer run, USD advance from early last month has ended; it must break and remain below 151.05 before a more sustained decline can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD/JPY to trade between 151.75 and 152.75

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, when USD was at 152.10, we expected it to ‘trade with a downward bias.’ However, we pointed out that ‘as momentum is not strong, any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 151.50.’ We also pointed out that ‘the major support at 151.05 is unlikely to come under threat.’ Our view was not wrong, as USD fell to 151.54, rebounding to close at 152.13. The rebound in slowing momentum suggests the downward bias has eased. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range, probably between 151.75 and 152.75.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We indicated last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 152.05) that ‘The USD advance from early last month has ended.’ We added, ‘downward momentum is beginning to build, but USD has to break and remain below 151.05 before a more sustained decline can be expected.’ Yesterday (Monday), USD fell to a low of 151.54. There has been a slight increase in momentum, and it remains to be seen if USD can break clearly below 151.05. Overall, only a breach of 153.35 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the chance of a break below 151.05 has faded.”

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