Will Guinea-Bissau remain trapped in political chaos?

Elections scheduled for December 6 in Guinea-Bissau have been postponed indefinitely. No new date has been set, leaving the country's return to civilian rule uncertain.

The parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December 6, 2026, in Guinea-Bissau will not take place as planned. Aly Silva, spokesperson for transitional Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te, confirmed to DW that the vote had been postponed until further notice. No new date has been set. The government first intends to discuss the matter in cabinet before publicly announcing when the elections will be held. It remains unclear whether they will take place in 2027 or not until 2028.

The country's political crisis dates back to November 26, 2025. Three days earlier, voters in Guinea-Bissau had elected a new parliament and president. Before the official results could be announced, the military seized power and halted the electoral process. Both then-President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, had claimed victory. The military leadership promised a return to constitutional order.

For lawyer and political analyst Cabi Sanha, the postponement comes as no surprise. Since the coup, little has been done to create the conditions for credible elections, he says.

"The postponement was foreseeable," Sanha told DW. December 6 had indeed been set as the new election date. "But nothing was done to ensure that these elections could actually take place."

Political freedoms under pressure

The transitional government has justified the postponement by citing the lack of organizational and political conditions necessary for elections. The deadline for submitting candidacies had already passed on October 6. Political parties and potential candidates had not submitted their applications. According to the prime minister, the parties had also failed to hold congresses to select their candidates.

Sanha sees this as more than an organizational problem. He points to restrictions on political activities and the lack of dialogue with key actors in the electoral process. Political parties and civil society have not been sufficiently involved, he says. Mediation efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Senegal have so far failed to produce a solution.

"Free, transparent and inclusive elections are only possible if the necessary conditions are established beforehand," the lawyer says.

He therefore also views the parties' failure to nominate candidates as a consequence of the political environment. "How are parties supposed to nominate candidates when political activities are restricted in the country? They cannot hold party congresses or organize rallies."

Leading opposition figures are also staying abroad. Domingos Simoes Pereira, head of the main opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was allowed to travel to Portugal in July 2026 for medical treatment after being released from detention. He had previously been held in pretrial detention in connection with an investigation into an alleged coup attempt. His defense team denies the allegations and has criticized the proceedings as politically motivated.

The absence of key opposition figures and restrictions on political organizing are making it harder to conduct an electoral process intended to pave the way for a return to civilian government.

An election date without a timetable

What happens next remains unclear. Government spokesperson Aly Silva says the transitional government will first discuss the matter in cabinet. Only afterward will a new election date be announced publicly. So far, there is no concrete timetable.

It is therefore also unclear when political parties will be able to complete their internal selection procedures, nominate candidates and begin campaigning. For Sanha, this is another indication that there is still insufficient evidence of the political will needed to restore constitutional order.

"I do not believe that logistical problems are the main issue. Rather, there appears to be a lack of political will to move the electoral process forward," he says.

Dispute over the constitution

The political crisis has been compounded by a controversial constitutional reform. In a referendum on August 30, 2026, voters approved constitutional amendments that expand the president's powers and reduce the size of parliament from 102 to 65 seats. Critics question the legitimacy of the process because the reform was prepared under military rule and without a regularly elected parliament. The opposition had called for a boycott of the vote.

Fernando Vaz, spokesperson for the National Transitional Council, defends the changes. He says the process was not a comprehensive rewriting of the constitution but a targeted revision. The reform is intended to help overcome the country's political instability, he argues.

"The constitution must be one of the instruments that lead our country toward greater stability," Vaz told DW. The transitional period had provided an opportunity to amend provisions that, in the military leadership's view, were obstructing the country's political development.

Vaz also rejects criticism that the reform gives the president additional powers at the expense of the prime minister. "The president of the republic is the head of state, while the prime minister is the head of government," he emphasizes.

Critics see it differently. The new constitutional framework strengthens the presidency: the president is to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and the government and, under certain conditions, dissolve parliament. At the same time, the number of parliamentary seats is being reduced. It remains disputed whether the reform will genuinely contribute to stability or instead concentrate more power in the presidency.

Local elections are not enough

The transitional government has announced plans to hold local elections in 2027. Sanha broadly welcomes the proposal: Guinea-Bissau has never held such elections since independence. Nevertheless, he stresses that they must not replace the outstanding national elections.

"First, parliamentary and presidential elections must take place so that the country can return to constitutional order. Local elections can follow afterward," he says.

Local elections cannot compensate for the lack of democratic legitimacy at the national level. Political freedoms must also be restored so that parties can select their candidates and voters can genuinely choose between political alternatives.

A Transition With No Clear End

Guinea-Bissau has endured decades of political instability, marked by military coups, institutional crises and repeated interruptions of democratic processes. The latest coup continues this pattern.

The renewed postponement of the elections shows how far the country remains from a return to constitutional order. Setting a new election date alone will not be enough. Political activities must be permitted again, parties must be included in the process, and reliable conditions for elections must be established, lawyer Cabi Sanha told DW.

This article was originally published in German.