Indonesia’s new era: Incoming president Prabowo could make the military more powerful again, say analysts

In the first of a three-part series on Mr Prabowo Subianto’s upcoming presidency, CNA looks at how much influence the military would have under the four-star general’s leadership.

JAYAPURA, Papua: Dozens of military and police personnel lined up neatly, lifting a 1km-long red-white Indonesian national flag above their heads at the border post between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea in Jayapura city.

The scorching sun and 31 degrees Celsius heat were not an issue for them. 

After all, it was a special day - Indonesia’s Independence Day which falls on Aug 17 - and they wanted to raise the national flag as high as possible to display their national pride. 

It was their moment to celebrate Indonesia’s sovereignty and 79 years of freedom while doing their job of securing and protecting the country, whose borders are prone to transnational crimes such as drug and firearms smuggling. 

Papua has also long been plagued with separate insurgencies.  

A recent survey by daily newspaper Kompas showed that 92.6 per cent of 1,200 respondents nationwide are satisfied with the military’s job in securing border areas. 

But housewife Rikha Felle, 29, believes that Papua has insufficient military and police personnel.

“There are not enough because Papua is big,” said Madam Rikha. 

Thus, she wants more officers to be deployed to Indonesia’s easternmost region. 

“More (military and police officers) should be deployed because the military and police help us little people. They safeguard us,” said Mdm Rikha.

Her wish may soon become a reality, as Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto will become Indonesia’s next president on Oct 20.

The retired four-star general will be taking over from Mr Joko Widodo, or Jokowi as he is commonly known as.

Under Mr Prabowo, more military personnel could be deployed in restive Papua, which officially became part of Indonesia in 1969 and has suffered from frequent low-level separate insurgencies ever since. 

Successful governments have over the years always deployed a sizable military and police force in Papua, which is widely regarded as the most militarised area in Indonesia. 

From February last year to April this year alone, about 6,700 military and police personnel were deployed to Papua, although there are no publicly available statistics on the total number of officers.

Mr Prabowo, too, was assigned to Papua in 1996 when a group of researchers was held hostage by separatist groups. 

Under his command, the hostages were eventually freed, and Mr Prabowo’s career skyrocketed. 

“This was one of Mr Prabowo’s achievements as a general commander of the Special Force Command,” said defence expert Mr Alman Helvas Ali from Jakarta-based defence think tank Marapi Consulting and Advisory.

With Mr Prabowo set to become Indonesia’s eighth president, some believe that he could effectively use his military skills and experience to lead Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, and also pave the way for soldiers to play a greater role in Indonesia. 

Still, some Indonesians are concerned about this, especially given allegations of past abuses by military personnel. 

CNA takes a deeper look at Mr Prabowo’s defence policies and whether the military is poised for a higher profile under his presidency.

MILITARY INFLUENCE IN PRABOWO’S LIFE

The military has been a significant part of Mr Prabowo’s life. 

Mr Prabowo, who turned 73 on Thursday (Oct 17), joined the military in the 1970s. 

"He was known as a firm, disciplined figure with high esprit de corps and had a strategic vision,” said Mr Khairul Fahmi, co-founder of Jakarta-based defence think tank Institute for Security and Strategic Studies (ISESS).

In 1998, at the peak of his military career, Mr Prabowo was the Commander of the army’s Strategic Reserve Command. 

However, nationwide student-led protests broke out that year amid the Asian financial crisis, with protesters demanding the resignation of then president Suharto, his father-in-law at that time.

Activists were abducted, and students were shot dead during protests. 

Suharto eventually stepped down in May 1998, and Mr Prabowo was also honourably discharged from the military over his suspected role in the abduction and shootings. 

Mr Prabowo has maintained that he was following orders and carried out operations which were legal at that time.

He has never been charged over the matter.

Mr Prabowo played up his background as a military strongman during his two previous unsuccessful bids for the presidency in 2014 and 2019, when he lost both times to outgoing president Widodo.

Mr Prabowo finally succeeded in his third presidential bid this year after an image makeover portrayed him as a cute, cuddly grandpa who likes to dance during campaigning. 

He teamed up with Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 37, the eldest son of Mr Widodo.

According to investigative outlet Tempo, there was suspicion that military and police officers were deployed to mobilise votes for Mr Prabowo during the presidential campaign.

The two losing presidential candidates - former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo - took the matter to the Constitutional Court, but it ruled that there was no foul play. 

"It is a vague accusation. It was an electoral competition, and even if there was any influence (from the military and police), the one who made the final decision was the person who voted at the polling station,” said Mr Khairul. 

PRABOWO’S DEFENCE PRIORITIES

Mr Prabowo joined Jokowi’s Cabinet as defence minister in Oct 2019, at the start of the latter’s second tenure as president. 

Underlining its importance, the defence ministry is among those that have received the most funding from the national budget over the years, although the amount fluctuated due to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2022. 

When the COVID-19 pandemic started to ease in 2022, the defence ministry received a budget of 150.4 trillion rupiah (US$9.7 billion).

This year, it received 175.1 trillion rupiah. Mr Prabowo decided to spend most of the money on buying military hardware from different countries to replace the country’s ageing equipment. 

This was a departure from his predecessor Ryamizard Ryacudu, who mostly relied on locally produced equipment.

Under Mr Prabowo’s watch, Indonesia has bought Rafale fighter jets from France and European Airbus A400M transport aircraft.

It also signed a contract with Turkish missile-maker Roketsan and is working with the country to develop shooting, parachute, and flight simulators.

Mr Khairul told CNA that having a diversified defence procurement strategy is common, especially for developing countries with limited budgets. 

He said procuring defence equipment from different countries is also a way to maintain good international relations.

However, such purchases do raise concerns about synchronisation and interoperability.

Indonesia had bought Russian Sukhoi warplanes in the past because the United States and European Union imposed an arms embargo on Indonesia in 1999 following its military intervention in Timor Leste. The EU lifted the ban in 2000, and the US did so later in 2005.

Next year, the defence ministry will receive the biggest budget out of all ministries.

Even though its budget of 165.2 trillion rupiah is less than this year’s, this signals that the defence ministry will be a priority of the incoming government, said analysts.

They noted that the 3.6 per cent dip in the ministry’s budget this year compared to 2023 is due to Indonesia’s need to allocate monies to new agencies that will be set up next year, including one to oversee Mr Prabowo’s flagship free lunch programme.

Deputy defence minister Muhammad Herindra and senior defence ministry officials have said that the budget will be used to continue buying more hardware and ensure the welfare of soldiers.

On his part, Mr Prabowo announced last year that a military command would be established in each of Indonesia’s 38 provinces, an increase from the current 15. 

No new commands have been set up so far, and the incoming president did not indicate a timeline for the expansion.

While some may argue that this expansion is a sign of growing militarisation, Mr Khairul pointed out that this had been planned since the presidency of Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Mr Widodo’s predecessor.

The plan was for the country first to upgrade its ageing military hardware, improve the welfare of military personnel, and then add more military commands. 

Military commands serve as the regional headquarters of the army. By having a military command in a region, the army can develop and train its personnel according to the needs of a particular area.

“The priority for now is still to modernise equipment,” said Mr Khairul.

“And even if they add new military commands, they won’t be built simultaneously across Indonesia because of limited budget.”

Mr Khairul believes that provinces in Indonesia's outermost regions or borders, such as Papua, would be given priority. 

A few years ago, Indonesia’s Papua island was expanded from two provinces into six, so it needs more resources. 

Papua Police spokesperson Senior Commissioner Ignatius Benny Adi Prabowo told CNA that the police also need additional resources such as more officers and a higher budget since some areas in Papua are prone to security issues such as insurgencies. 

Last month, a New Zealand pilot was finally freed after being held captive by separatist groups for 19 months in Nduga district. 

This month, a school was set on fire allegedly by rebel groups in Central Papua.

"Of course, we hope for support from the central government in terms of budget or equipment," Mr Ignatius said. 

Analysts said that beyond upgrading hardware and improving soldiers’ welfare, Mr Prabowo will also be keen to advance Indonesia’s defence and security ties with other countries.

For one thing, the new president has a personal interest in regional and geopolitical issues and is also expected to play an active role in driving the country’s foreign policy.  

“I think Indonesia under Mr Prabowo will develop more strategic relations, especially given his military background,” said Mr Khairul.

“As former general and current defence minister, he has a more in-depth understanding of defence diplomacy (than outgoing President Widodo).

“And I think this is a big asset for Indonesia to go international during Mr Prabowo’s era, especially as the de facto leader of ASEAN.” 

Mr Alman shares the same view. He added that Mr Prabowo’s strategy of buying arms from different countries shows his outward-looking vision. 

“So far, we have been very inward-looking, as if the threat is from within, which is a wrong mindset.”

CHANGES IN LAWS AND PROPOSED LAWS

In the past few years, legislative changes and proposed law amendments have raised fears among critics that the country’s hard-won democracy after the 1998 protests will backslide.

A key concern stems from amendments to the civil service law that were passed last year, allowing military and police personnel to fill certain civilian positions in government and state-owned companies, while still being subjected to police and military rules.

Jakarta resident Maria Katarina Sumarsih, 72, believes the military and police should not take up civilian positions. 

“Many young people have difficulties finding jobs,” she said.

“So why do military personnel who already have permanent jobs get the chance to fill in those positions? This does not make sense,” said Madam Maria, who lost her 20-year-old son in one of the deadly protests in 1998.

Mr Yohanes Sulaiman, a defence and international relations expert from the University of Jenderal Achmad Yani in West Java, told CNA that this is due to the growing number of active military personnel who do not hold functional positions. 

Yet he thinks military officers do not want to be assigned to civilian positions.

“From a military perspective, if you are assigned to a civilian position, that is a warning from your supervisor that you will soon retire and not return to base,” said Mr Yohanes.

Indonesia’s national armed forces, Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI), currently has about one million personnel. 

A controversial bill that may have given the military and police more power was also discussed in the House of Representatives in the past few months. 

The government said that a new TNI law is needed as the current one is already 20 years old and needs to be updated to reflect newer threats, such as cyberattacks. 

However, the bill also stated the military would have dual functions. 

This sparked fears that the country would return to the New Order era under Suharto, when the military had a dual-function model in which it was involved in defence and civilian governance. 

Under the latest proposed Bill, military personnel could, for example, own businesses, raising questions of conflicts of interest. 

The Bill would also extend the retirement age of officers and give more flexibility and fewer restrictions in placing active soldiers in ministries and government institutions compared to the civil service law passed last year.

The proposed changes prompted a public outcry and the Bill had not been passed when the lawmakers' five-year term ended on Sep 30 due to the limited time to address some of the public’s concerns. 

But the Bill can still be revived by the new lawmakers who were sworn in on Oct 1. 

However, Mr Yohanes the defence expert believes that such a Bill would unlikely be passed soon. 

“Because there are people who try to prevent it from being passed or at least altered so the military would not grow so big,” he said, referring to not just the public but also some segments of the Indonesian government with vested interests in seeing a less powerful TNI.   

But Mdm Maria believes under Mr Prabowo’s rule, the military would return to its dual function as the guardian of the state’s sovereignty and handle other issues, including food security. 

Her son Bernardinus Realino Norma Irmawan, whose nickname was Wawan, was one of the protesters shot dead, and until today, nobody has been held accountable for his death. 

Mr Khairul from ISESS said it is understandable that such concerns exist.

"Naturally, there are such concerns because we have not been entirely free from past trauma,” he said.

THE PEOPLE HAVE A VOICE

Thus, experts say the public should always remain vigilant and voice their opinions to prevent abuse of power that could lead to a decline in democracy and human rights in Indonesia. 

"We cannot forget that Mr Prabowo has a dark history during the New Order, not only Prabowo as a person but also ABRI as an organisation," said Mr Alman Helvas Ali from Marapi Consulting and Advisory. 

ABRI was the Indonesian military’s abbreviation at that time.

Mdm Maria has for the past 18 years stood in front of Jakarta’s presidential palace with other protesters every Thursday, carrying black umbrellas to commemorate her son and other victims of the 1998 shootings and abductions.

She hopes when Mr Prabowo is inaugurated, he will not forget his presidential oath. 

“In a presidential oath, it says that the person must follow the constitution.

“The constitution says that the protection, promotion, enforcement and fulfilment of human rights is the responsibility of the state, especially the government,” she said.

Ultimately, all analysts CNA spoke to concluded that the public should give Mr Prabowo time to prove himself.

“On one side, I am worried about Indonesia’s democracy and whether the new president would be too strong,” said Mr Yohanes from the University of Jenderal Achmad Yani.

“But on the other side, I am pretty optimistic. I don’t think he is a brutal person. He has no bad intentions. He has learned from the past, and he is smart.”  

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