RBA's Hunter says AI has yet to deliver productivity boost, trigger job losses

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SYDNEY, Nov 9 : A senior Australian central banker said on Monday there was limited evidence that artificial intelligence had meaningfully lifted productivity and caused widespread job losses, but warned the technology could pose growing risks to financial stability.

Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter judged the impact from AI on inflation would likely vary over time, initially boosting demand and adding to price pressures at a time when the economy was supply constrained.

"Over time, supply will catch up with demand as data centre capacity and related sectors expand, easing current bottlenecks," she said.

"If AI delivers broader productivity gains, economies will be able to produce more with the same inputs. As a result, the initial inflationary pressures from AI investment are likely to dissipate."

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A boom in domestic data centre investment has added to demand pressures in the economy and is one reason the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates five times this year, taking them to an 18-year high of 4.85 per cent to fight inflation.

Hunter said there was limited evidence AI has materially lifted productivity and that AI has had large effects on employment.

"However, there are tentative signs of adjustment, through weaker job ad posting and employment outcomes in more AI-exposed occupations, and stronger growth in areas where the technology has had less of an impact, particularly for younger workers."

She also warned of the possibility AI could increase risks to financial stability, with asset prices exposed to sharp repricing or even disorderly adjustments if AI investment returns fall short of expectations.

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