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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

26 Sep 2024, 18:55 · CBS Sports

The Week 4 NFL schedule is full of NFL matchups between familiar foes, with five divisional rivalry matchups, multiple games between teams with recent history against each other, and even a playoff rematch from a season ago. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 32-9, during NFL Wild Card Weekend last year and now the two teams run it back on Sunday. Both teams are 2-1 on the season, but the latest Week 4 NFL odds list the Eagles as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills and Ravens are considered two of the favorites in the AFC, but Baltimore is off to a 1-2 start, while Buffalo has looked like one of the NFL's best at 3-0. The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites in the NFL spreads.

Who wins those matchups and how can you find value as you're putting together your Week 4 NFL best bets and NFL betting predictions? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+2.5, 42.5) cover the spread versus the Falcons. The Saints kept the Eagles off the scoreboard for their first six drives with a defensive and special teams effort that included two turnovers, a turnover on downs and a blocked punt over the first three quarters. The Eagles found offensive success in the fourth quarter, scoring all 15 of their points during that period in a 15-12 win over the Saints, but the New Orleans defense proved it has the potential to be one of the best units in the NFL. The Saints have the No. 5 scoring defense, allowing 14.7 points per game, while forcing the second-most takeaways (2.3) in the league through three weeks.

The Saints are 4-1 in their last five matchups against the Falcons. They have been even more successful at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium than at home against the Falcons, going 5-1 in Atlanta since the start of the 2018 NFL season and they'll be in Atlanta on Sunday. It's been a slow start to the Kirk Cousins era in Atlanta with the Falcons 1-2 over their first three games with the one victory coming off an improbable two-minute drive against the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The model projects the Saints to hold the Falcons to fewer than 25 points, as New Orleans has in each game so far this season, leaving the Saints to cover the spread in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-1.5, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. Pittsburgh has been one of the NFL's most unlikely successes early in the season. The Steelers revamped their quarterback room by signing Russell Wilson in free agency and trading for Justin Fields, eventually naming Wilson the starter after a drawn out battle during the preseason.

However, Wilson has been nursing a calf injury early in the season and Fields has made the most of his opportunity, leading the Steelers to a 3-0 record by completing 73.3% of his passes, using his legs to extend plays and generally avoiding catastrophic mistakes. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards allowed and Anthony Richardson leads the NFL with six interceptions. That's a big reason why the model has the Steelers covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.