Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 4, 2024: Avoid this heavy favorite

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 4 NFL survivor picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars continue to be a target of NFL survivor pool picks, and that won't be any different with Week 4 NFL knockout pool picks. The Jaguars have lost eight consecutive games that Trevor Lawrence has started, dating back to last season, and Jacksonville will visit the Houston Texans on Sunday. However, Lawrence's last victory as a starter came in a 24-21 win at Houston on Nov. 26, 2023. The Jaguars are 2-10 in their last 12 meetings with the Texans and are 6.5-point underdogs according to the latest Week 4 NFL odds. Houston will likely be a popular target for Week 4 knockout picks given Jacksonville's struggles in this AFC South rivalry. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10.5, 40.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. New England is coming off a 24-3 loss to the New York Jets last Thursday, but the Patriots have been a tough opponent thus far this season.

The Patriots knocked off the Bengals in Week 1, securing a 16-10 victory on the road. New England then suffered a 23-20 loss in overtime to the Seahawks, despite quarterback Jacoby Brissett throwing for only 149 yards. The Pats are averaging 144.3 rushing yards per game this season and they could have success against a San Francisco defense that is giving up 23.0 points per game, which ranks 21st in the league. The 49ers are also dealing with injuries to star players like Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel (calf). Save the 49ers for later in the season and utilize another more convincing option in Week 4 NFL knockout pools See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.