2024 Week 4 NFL point totals, over-under picks, Vegas betting lines: Proven model shares 25-1 parlay

The SportsLine Projection Model reveals its best bets for Week 4 NFL game point totals and generated a 5-line NFL over/under parlay that pays 25-1

NFL point totals are one of the biggest markets in the NFL odds and oddsmakers are trying to adjust to what seems to be a shift. Passing is down and scoring is down correspondingly, with unders going 27-18-1 over the first three weeks of the season. However, there are two teams that have had overs hit in all three of their games to start the season, the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens will host the Bills in a big matchup on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, while the Cowboys went under against the Giants on Thursday Night Football. Which side of the NFL point totals should you bet in those games and which Week 4 NFL over/unders should you play? Before you make any Week 4 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. It's also 8-5 on top-rated over/under picks since the start of that season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it for NFL betting is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 4 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL over/under best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 4 NFL total picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL total picks

One part of the five-line NFL totals parlay we can reveal: The model says the Over (41) hits in Saints vs. Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons are one of eight teams in the NFL that have had the under hit in their first three games, but it wouldn't be wise to bet against an offense with talent like Atlanta has forever.

Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts form the core of an offense that could go off at any moment. New Orleans' pass defense ranks 26th entering Week 4 and the last time that Kirk Cousins took on a Dennis Allen defense, the two teams combined to score 53 points in a 28-25 win for the Vikings in 2022. Meanwhile, the Saints and Falcons combined to score 65 points in their last matchup and the model predicts the over hits here in well over 60% of simulations. See which other NFL over/under parlay picks to make here.  

How to parlay Week 4 NFL over/unders

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the over-under is way off, including an A-rated pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 4 best bets and over/under parlay at SportsLine.  

So how many points are scored in each game and which over/unders should you include for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 4 NFL total picks from a model on an 187-130 run on top-rated picks, and find out.