Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 4, 2024: Fade this heavy favorite

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 4 NFL survivor picks

Coming off back-to-back wins with Aaron Rodgers looking like his vintage self, the Jets will be penciled into many Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks versus Denver. However, this could be a potential trap game considering the Jets are coming off a lengthy rest after playing last Thursday and could be looking ahead to their London trip in Week 5. Also, teams have the tendency to play to their level of competition, so with the struggling Broncos in town, it may be better to put New York on upset alert instead of in your Week 4 NFL knockout pool picks.

Add in that the last time Rodgers faced a Sean Payton-coached team, the quarterback had just the third zero-touchdown, two-interception game of his career. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10, 39.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. There's a trend that many who have already been eliminated in survivor pools likely picked up on. There have already been four games this season in which a team was favored by at least seven points, and all four of those favorites lost straight-up. That includes in Week 1 when Cincinnati was the week's biggest favorite at -8.5, only to lose at home to New England. In fact, the biggest favorite from Week 1 (Bengals), Week 2 (Ravens) and Week 3 (Bengals) all lost their games outright.

This trend will end at some point, but you shouldn't have supreme confidence that it will end in the 49ers vs. Patriots matchup, especially considering the Pats already authored one of those upsets. New England doesn't turn the ball over (one giveaway), and San Francisco simply doesn't win if it loses the turnover battling, suffering 14 straight defeats when this happens. Save the 49ers for later in the season and utilize another more convincing option in Week 4 NFL knockout pools. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.