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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backing Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

25 Sep 2024, 18:14 · CBS Sports

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are still searching for their first win of the season after suffering a 38-33 loss to the Washington Commanders. Burrow and the Bengals will try to get off the mark on the road against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday during the Week 4 NFL schedule. The Panthers will start veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, who played for nine years in Cincinnati, after he led Carolina to a victory on the road against the Raiders last Sunday. According to the latest Week 4 NFL odds, Cincinnati is listed as a 4.5-point favorite on the road.

The Bengals have won nine of their last 10 games against opponents from the NFC, while the Panthers have lost 17 of their past 20 games overall. Should your Week 4 NFL picks include the Bengals, or should you look elsewhere in the NFL spreads and NFL betting odds for value? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+1.5, 42.5) cover the spread versus the Falcons. The Saints have had success against the Falcons in recent years. In fact, New Orleans is 7-3 in its last 10 meetings against Atlanta.

The Saints enter Sunday's showdown averaging 34.3 points per game on offense, which ranks second in the NFL. Running back Alvin Kamara has been sensational for New Orleans, rushing 61 times for 285 yards and four touchdowns. He's also hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 132 yards and a score. Kamara finished with 119 all-purpose yards in the road tilt against the Falcons last season, and SportsLine's model expects he'll be heavily involved again on Sunday. The model projects Kamara will finish with more than 100 all-purpose yards as the Saints secure the victory and cover the spread in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-2, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. Whether in Pittsburgh or in Indy, the Steelers have owned this head-to-head series recently. They are 8-1 over their last nine versus the Colts, which dates back to the days Andrew Luck was in Indianapolis. The Steelers are 6-1 over the teams' last seven meetings in Indy, and the 2024 Colts have been one of the league's worst defensive teams through three weeks.

Indianapolis ranks second-worst in both total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. The Steelers' run-first philosophy makes this a bad matchup for Indy which should struggle containing both Najee Harris and Justin Fields on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Indy has committed the second-most turnovers, while Pittsburgh owns the league's best defense in terms of both points and yards. Thus, everything that Indy struggles at is something that the Steelers can capitalize off, which is why the SportsLine model has Pittsburgh maintaining its perfect spread record this year and covering well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.