Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 4, 2024: Avoid this heavy favorite

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 4 NFL survivor picks

Astute bettors will seek every nugget of information to help with their Week 4 NFL survivor strategy, and observing how teams perform off short weeks could help with Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks. Washington played on Monday and will visit Arizona on Sunday, but having less than a week to prepare for a game hasn't been too kind to the Commanders. They've lost their last three games on short rest with an eyebrow-raising 24-point average margin of defeat. The Cardinals are 1-2, but have the seventh-best point differential in the league. Plus, their two losses came by a touchdown or less to a pair of Super Bowl contenders in the Bills and Lions.

You'd be forgiven if you wanted to see Arizona with a few more games under its belt before backing it in Week 4 NFL knockout pool picks, but at the same time, this may be the best chance all year to insert them into NFL eliminator pool picks. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10.5, 40.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. New England already ended many NFL survivor pools by winning as touchdown-plus underdogs in Week 1, as having the extra time to prepare for that game with the Bengals allowed for the perfect game plan to defeat Cincinnati. Coming off a game last Thursday, the Pats will have more rest and time to prepare for the Week 4 contest, unlike the Niners who had a demoralizing defeat to the Rams, in which they let a 14-point lead slip away.

The Patriots don't wow you offensively but they protect the ball (only one giveaway) and they have a top-10 rushing offense. Meanwhile, the Niners have major injuries on offense and major holes on defense. After having the No. 3 scoring defense a year ago, they now rank 23rd in points allowed and are 30th in redzone defense. The Patriots have also beaten the 49ers the last two times they've met in San Francisco, with an 11-point average MOV in those games. There are just too many concerns with the 49ers at the moment to utilize them in Week 4 NFL knockout pools, so the model advises to save them for later in the year. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.