New poll finds shift in Jasmine Crockett-James Talarico Senate race in Texas

State Rep. James Talarico has taken the lead in the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate nomination, according to a new poll by a Democratic political firm.

Attorney General Ken Paxton has widened his lead in the Republican race going into an apparent May runoff, according to the poll by Mississippi-based Chism Strategies, which has an office in San Antonio.

Talarico has overtaken long-standing frontrunner U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and now leads Crockett, 52%-40%, in a poll of 472 primary voters Feb. 23-24. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, meaning results can vary by that much in either direction.

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It’s the second poll in just days to show a Democratic candidate leading beyond the polling margin of error. But they swing in opposite directions: Crockett led Talarico, 56%-44%, in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll Feb. 2-16.

That poll was conducted before Talarico’s Feb, 16 interview on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” aired on YouTube to avoid running afoul of FCC equal-time rules. The interview drew 9 million viewers within a week.

With Democrats approaching record turnout in early voting, the race appears difficult to forecast.

The winner of the March 3 primary will face whichever Republican prevails in a primary that will apparently go to a May 26 runoff between Paxton and incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

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In the Republican primary, Paxton has 41% of the vote to Cornyn’s 30% and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt’s 14%. The poll of 529 voters has a 3-percentage-point margin of error.

However, the poll also showed that Cornyn would gain 10 points in the runoff if he wins the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

Paxton and Cornyn were tied in the earlier University of Texas poll.

Both polls showed the race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general also appears headed to a runoff between U.S. Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton.

The newer Blueprint poll showed Roy at 30% and Middleton at 26%, a mathematical tie within the 3% margin of error. The earlier UT poll also showed them in a mathematical tie.

Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa appeared on the way to easy nomination to face Gov. Greg Abbott in the fall race for governor. Hinojosa led other Democrats with 61% in the poll.

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