Trump Looks Ahead to Summit With China’s Xi, but Tariffs and Taiwan Loom

President Trump said his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping would be a grand display, but tensions over trade and defense could dampen the mood.

President Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping in China this April is expected to be a grandiose affair, although friction over trade, Taiwan and technology could upset the bonhomie.

Mr. Trump is scheduled to travel to China on March 31 for a three-day trip, a White House official confirmed on Friday. The Chinese government, which tends to hold off from revealing plans for major visits, has not confirmed the dates, but Mr. Trump already appears exuberant about his trip.

“I have a very good relationship with President Xi. I’m going to be going to China in April,” Mr. Trump said last week. “That’s going to be a wild one.”

He said his latest summit with Mr. Xi should “put on the biggest display you’ve ever had in the history of China.” Mr. Trump also noted the ceremonial troops he saw during his last visit to Beijing in 2017, saying “I never saw so many soldiers all the same height.”

For China, a grandiose reception for Mr. Trump will convey a message to the world, especially to its Asian neighbors, said Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“Xi is sending a global signal that he has successfully managed the U.S. through a year of resistance” to Mr. Trump’s trade war, said Mr. Gewirtz, who is now a senior research scholar at Columbia University. China would want Mr. Trump’s presence to show “that even the most powerful country in the world has decided that the risks outweigh the benefits of standing up to China,” Mr. Gewirtz said.

The White House has not released details about precisely when and where Mr. Trump will hold talks with Mr. Xi.

The United States and China have many points of contention that could ruffle, or at worst derail, the summit. And Mr. Trump’s bargaining power over Mr. Xi ahead of their meeting may be partly clipped by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision that declared parts of his tariffs illegal.

Last week, the Supreme Court struck down a large part of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on many countries, including China. The White House has said that it would keep the tariffs going under new legal justifications, and Mr. Trump has already announced a new 15 percent import tax.

Even so, the legal setback for Mr. Trump may boost Mr. Xi’s confidence that he has gained more of the initiative in his country’s rivalry with the United States, said Chinese and American analysts.

“I think this will put China in a more advantageous position in the forthcoming trade talks with the U.S., and China can also push the U.S. on other fronts,” Prof. Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Mr. Trump will go to China focused on securing business and investment agreements, his previous statements suggest. The Trump administration has also pressed Mr. Xi to stop restricting sales of rare earths as a lever against other countries, a step that Beijing used last year to retaliate against U.S. export controls and tariffs.

“China had already turned the tables on the U.S. with its effective use last year of rare earth restrictions to force the U.S. to have reduced tariffs and limit its export controls,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher on the Chinese economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Mr. Xi’s main hope from the summit may be less specific: an extended period of stability in dealings with the United States. Much of China’s economy is in poor shape, despite a record trade surplus. Mr. Xi has also overseen purges and investigations in the Chinese military. Late last year, these brought down Zhang Youxia, the most senior general of the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., who was accused of corruption and disloyalty.

“At a broad level, I think Xi wants time and stability in relations,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University who worked as director for China in the National Security Council under President Obama.

Mr. Xi “needs time to make the economy more resilient and put it in a long term pathway to growth,” said Professor Medeiros. “He needs time to sort out the P.L.A. And he thinks time with Trump in office will help him diplomatically.”

Mr. Xi will also probably seek concessions from Mr. Trump on restrictions of Chinese purchases of technology, as well as on Chinese investments into the United States, said Professor Wu, the researcher in Shanghai.

Mr. Xi’s greatest goal may be to persuade Mr. Trump to dilute U.S. support — rhetorical, diplomatic and military — for Taiwan, the island-democracy that has for decades rejected Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.

China’s leaders hope that, for a start, Mr. Trump will state that the United States opposes Taiwan seeking independence, said Prof. Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University. If Mr. Trump makes such a statement, that could suggest that he sees Taiwan as troublesome. Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has said the island is already in reality independent, while implicitly ruling out declaring formal independence.

Chinese officials probably see little chance of Mr. Trump making a dramatic shift in U.S. policy on Taiwan, but hope to work on him over the coming year, when the two leaders will have two or three more opportunities to meet, said Professor Xin.

If, on the other hand, Mr. Trump approves a new package of arms sales to Taiwan, following U.S. approval of $11 billion in weapons sales in December, that could send relations into another downward spin and even derail the summit, Professor Xin said.

“The arbitrariness and uncertainty of President Trump’s decision-making make it very hard to predict,” Professor Xin said of what may happen over talks about Taiwan. “But I have always believed that he will not make concessions on major strategic areas.”

Mr. Xi could also retaliate if Mr. Trump moves to replace the tariffs outlawed by the Supreme Court with similar tariffs under new legal justifications.

China’s exports to the United States have come under a range of tariffs, and the United States mostly treats these separate duties as stackable, so they can add up on top of each other. The Supreme Court’s decision stripped back some layers of this stack, including a 10 percent general tariff as well as a 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump put on China for failing to prevent fentanyl and its precursor chemicals from flowing to the United States.

If Mr. Trump revives the outlawed tariffs under new legal justifications, China could cut orders of farm produce from the United States, said Professor Wu, the scholar in Shanghai.

Meaghan Tobin and Keith Bradsher contributed reporting.

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