UFC Paris Preview, Odds, Picks And Predictions: Moicano vs Saint Denis

The next card on the UFC schedule takes place on Saturday, September 28, at Accor Arena in Paris, France. A lightweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis headlines UFC Paris. Before that bout, the co-main event of the UFC’s 2024 Paris fight card is a middleweight scrap between two highly ranked competitors in Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen.

Moicano heads into the UFC Fight Night card as the No. 11 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. As for Saint Denis, he comes into Saturday’s event at No. 12 in the 155-pound weight division.

Below, we look at the UFC Paris matchup between Moicano and Saint Denis.

Careers

Renato Moicano

Renato Moicano (19-5-1) is riding his second three-fight winning streak as a member of the UFC roster. The 35-year-old opened his run with the promotion at 3-0 record between 2014 and 2017. Since then, Moicano has been up and down. He followed that by going 5-5 over his next 10 outings before beginning his current unbeaten streak in 2022.

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Moicano is 5-1 dating back to June 2021. His only loss during that time was a March 2022 unanimous decision setback to former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in a 160-pound catchweight battle.

In April, Moicano picked up his first knockout as a member of the UFC, decking Jalin Turner on the early prelims of the UFC 300 fight card. Moicano has never headlined a UFC event before UFC Paris.

Benoit Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis (13-2-0-1) joined the UFC in 2021 as a short-notice replacement against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267. Dos Santos won that scrap by unanimous decision, handing the French fighter his first career loss. That matchup took place at welterweight.

Saint Denis followed up that setback with five straight wins at lightweight between June 2022 and November 2023. Each of those victories came by way of stoppage (two submissions, three knockouts). He earned three fight-night bonus awards during that stretch.

Following a knockout win over Matt Frevola at UFC 295, the UFC matchmakers booked Saint Denis against former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier at UFC 299. Saint Denis was the betting favorite in that matchup, and it seemed as if the promotion was looking for the 28-year-old to leave the Octagon that night with a victory over a big-name opponent. Instead, Poirier knocked out Saint Denis in the second round.

Saint Denis has only gone the distance once in his career, and that came in his loss to Dos Santos. Like his foe in Paris, Saint Denis has never headlined a UFC fight card in the past.

UFC Paris Betting Odds: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis

When the UFC Paris main event was first announced, Saint Denis was a -250 betting favorite over Moicano, who came in at +200. Today, oddsmakers have Saint Denis listed at -290, while Moicano is the +210 betting underdog.

Significant Stats

Moicano lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy is 48 percent. As for defense, Moicano gets hit 3.68 times per minute, and his defensive striking percentage stands at 60 percent. Moicano averages 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 45 percent. His takedown defense is 72 percent.

Saint Denis lands an average of 5.70 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 54 percent. He absorbs 4.98 significant strikes per minute, and his defensive striking number is 42 percent. Saint Denis averages 4.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 37 percent. His takedown defense is 69 percent.

UFC Paris Main Event Pick and Prediction

Look for Benoit Saint Denis to win the UFC Paris main event by knockout.

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