UFC Paris Preview, Odds, Picks And Predictions: Imavov Vs. Allen
by Trent Reinsmith · ForbesThe next card on the 2024 UFC schedule takes place on Saturday, September 28, at Accor Arena in Paris, France. A lightweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis headlines UFC Paris. Before that bout, the co-main event of the UFC Paris fight card is a middleweight scrap between two highly ranked competitors in Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen.
Imavov enters the upcoming fight card as the No. 4 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. Meanwhile, Allen is the No. 8 fighter in the promotion’s 185-pound weight class.
Below, we look at the pivotal UFC Paris matchup between Imavov and Allen.
Careers
Nassourdine Imavov
Nassourdine Imavov (14-4-0-1) was 8-2 when he first fought for the UFC. That bout came in October 2020, and he won a decision over Jordan Williams. Imavov went 3-1 in his next four UFC outings. In January 2023, Imavov was booked to face Kelvin Gastelum, but that fight fell apart when Gastelum withdrew. Sean Strickland stepped in on short notice to keep the fight, which was to be the main event, on the card. The only stipulation was that the meeting was to take place at light heavyweight. Strickland picked up a unanimous decision win in that scrap.
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Imavov has fought three times since then. In June 2023 he faced Strickland’s teammate Chris Curtis at UFC 289, but that fight ended in a no contest when a clash of heads left Curtis unable to continue. Then, in February of this year, Imavov defeated Roman Dolidze by majority decision in a main event scrap on a UFC Fight Night card.
In his most recent outing, the 29-year-old scored a TKO win over former UFC middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier in the main event of a June Fight Night card in Louisville.
Imavov took the best that Jared Cannonier had to offer in the first three rounds of their UFC Louisville main event and was in the process of turning the tables on the former UFC middleweight title challenger when referee Jason Herzog waved off the fight in the fourth stanza and awarded the victory to Imavov.
Cannonier's game plan was a good one, but his approach of using leg kicks to slow his opponent and pick up control time against the cage didn't work. Yes, the leg kicks scored for Cannonier, but they didn't deter Imavov, who was mounting a comeback after falling behind 29-29 on two scorecards heading into the fourth round.
Before the fight was waved off, Imavov had honed in on Cannonier's range and timing. He landed 60 percent of his significant strikes in the second round, 65 percent in the third, and 73 percent in the fourth before Herzog stopped the fight.
After his win, Imavov called for a matchup against former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland. He did not get his wish. Instead, Imavov faces Allen on Saturday in Paris.
Brendan Allen
Brendan Allen (24-5) was the defending LFA middleweight champion when he was tapped to appear on Season 3 of the Dana White’s Contender Series. Allen, who was 11-3 at the time, picked up a first-round submission win over Aaron Jeffrey on that July 2019 fight card. He then went 5-2 over the next two years with the UFC, beating the likes of Kevin Holland and Tom Breese while losing to Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland by TKO.
Following his loss to Curtis, Allen moved to 205 pounds, where he submitted Sam Alvey. In his next outing, Allen dropped back to middleweight, scoring a decision over Jacob Malkoun in June 2022.
Since that win, Allen has gone 5-0 with four submission victories. His stoppage streak ended in April of this year when he earned a split decision in a rematch with Chris Curtis. The 28-year-old Allen has 14 career submission wins. He also has five knockouts and five decision triumphs.
Allen has earned three “Performance of the Night” bonuses in his past five fights, and his two most recent outings have both been headlining affairs on UFC Fight Night cards.
Allen was the No. 6 ranked UFC middleweight when he faced Curtis in Vegas in April. Allen picked up six takedowns and racked up 6:05 of control time in that matchup while landing 50 percent of his significant strike attempts.
UFC Paris Betting Odds: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Brendan Allen
Imavov opened as the -188 betting favorite over Allen, who was +140. Those odds have shifted. Today, Imavov is the -230 favorite, while Allen is the +175 betting underdog.
Significant Stats
Imavov is the more active and accurate striker, landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute at a clip of 55 percent, while Allen connects for 3.98 strikes per minute at a rate of 53 percent. Imavov also has better defensive striking stats, getting hit 3.33 times per minute with a defense of 59 percent. Allen’s defense rate is 47 percent and he gets tagged 3.83 times per minute.
The offensive grappling numbers favor Allen, who lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 47 percent. Imavov sticks 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, succeeding on 36 percent of his attempts. Imavov’s takedown defense is 74 percent, while Allen’s is 58 percent.
UFC Paris Prediction and Pick: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Brendan Allen
The betting pick for the co-main event of UFC Paris is Nassourdine Imavov to defeat Brendan Allen via decision.
Start Time and How to Watch UFC Paris 2024
UFC Paris takes place at Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Saturday, September 28. The main card begins at 3:00 p.m. ET following prelims at noon ET. The entire card streams on ESPN+.