“Avoid escalation”: Estonia breaks silence after US and Israel attack Iran

Estonia urged restraint in the Middle East on Saturday after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory attacks across the region, while Tallinn – citing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, brutal domestic repression and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ terrorist designation – warned citizens to leave Israel and argued that curbing Tehran’s reach would strengthen European security.

Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, said Tallinn was “closely monitoring the situation” and keeping constant contact with Estonia’s embassies and citizens in the Middle East. In a statement, he repeated Estonia’s long-held position that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons, while warning that spiralling hostilities risk dragging the wider region – and the international system – into deeper instability.

“We call on all parties to avoid further escalation,” Tsahkna said. “De-escalation, a return to diplomatic efforts and compliance with international law are essential to ensure both regional and global stability and to protect civilians.”

The strikes came after weeks of heightened tension around Iran’s nuclear programme and its ballistic missile capabilities. Washington said the military operation – labelled Epic Fury – could last several days, while Israel described its actions as pre-emptive. Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military facilities in multiple countries, triggering emergency measures and renewed warnings for foreign nationals.

“Not abstract” for Estonia

Estonia’s response was framed not only through the prism of Middle East security, but also through Europe’s – and Estonia’s – own frontline anxieties. Tsahkna pointed to Iran’s role as a destabilising actor beyond the region, including its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Tallinn “supports European Union sanctions against the Iranian regime” for “grave human rights violations”, he said, referring to Iran’s domestic repression and the deaths of thousands of people in crackdowns, as well as Tehran’s assistance to Moscow. Estonia also backs the EU’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation – a step taken in February that marked a significant hardening of the bloc’s posture towards Tehran.

In Tsahkna’s reading, weakening Iran’s regime is not merely a matter of moral clarity, but of strategic consequence. “Iran is an active supporter of Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine,” he said, adding that curbing Tehran’s capacity to project power “directly strengthens European security”.

Travel warning: leave Israel while routes remain open

Alongside its diplomatic message, the Estonian foreign ministry issued practical guidance to citizens in the region as the security situation deteriorated rapidly.

Israel has closed its airspace indefinitely, the ministry said, urging Estonian citizens to leave the country “while it remains possible to do so”. Land border crossings with Egypt and Jordan are currently open. Fewer than ten Estonian citizens are believed to be in Israel on short-term stays, according to information available to the ministry.

Estonians anywhere in the Middle East were asked to register their short-term stay – either via the ministry’s website or by email – to help officials locate and assist them if circumstances worsen. Consular assistance is available around the clock via the emergency number +372 5301 9999.

For those remaining in Israel, officials recommended downloading Tzofar – Red Alert, a mobile application that issues real-time warnings of rocket attacks. The ministry also urged citizens to follow local guidance and seek shelter immediately if sirens sound.

In the event of a rocket threat, the advice was blunt: get to a designated shelter or safe room and stay there for at least ten minutes after the siren ends. If no shelter is known, citizens should move indoors and head for a windowless stairwell or basement; if caught outside with no buildings nearby, lie down and cover the head.

Parliament’s foreign affairs chairman: “regime change” signals a longer war

Estonia’s political debate is already sharpening around what the strikes are meant to achieve – and what Europe should do next.

Marko Mihkelson, an MP and chairman of the Estonian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, argued that President Trump’s stated aim goes beyond punishment and deterrence. In his assessment, Washington is openly signalling a regime-change agenda, calling on Iranian security forces to surrender and appealing directly to the Iranian public to rise up once the offensive concludes.

If that interpretation proves accurate, Mihkelson suggested, the campaign is unlikely to be short. Air power alone rarely dismantles entrenched governing systems, he warned, and the depth of Iran’s internal cohesion – as well as the scale of Iranian resistance – will determine whether this becomes a protracted confrontation.

He also pointed to the wider chessboard: Russia and China will be forced to respond politically to an assault on a partner state, even if analysts doubt either would intervene militarily. For Europe, he argued, the stakes are direct: Iran’s strategic reach – from missiles and proxy networks to its links with Russia’s war machine – means any major shift in Tehran would reverberate well beyond the Gulf.