Jharkhand Assembly elections: Big picture, key elements

The electorate faced two alternative narratives, but the emphatic victory of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led alliance was based on a campaign that struck a chord with voters

A State-level party has, yet again, caused a roadblock for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While details fit into the jigsaw puzzle of explaining victories and losses, the big picture presented by Jharkhand has two key elements. First, it was about the tenacity and the ability of State-level forces to face and respond to all-India intrusions and, second, the tough competition between regional identity-based politics centred around Adivasis vis-à-vis an attempt to draw in Adivasis toward a set of aggressive and all-India concerns that are centred on cultural identity.

Jharkhand Assembly elections 2024: Full coverage

The two sides

At the tactical level, the emphatic victory of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance was a victory: of effective coalition management and of a campaign that focused on issues that struck a chord with voters. But beyond that, Jharkhand saw a clear competition between two alternative narratives. The JMM-led government was defending its track record in governance and its image of representing tribal interests. The BJP-led alliance sought to present a wider narrative to try and appeal to a wider cross-section and aggressively attack the incumbent government on non-performance and high levels of corruption. The BJP’s narrative also had a strong dose of Hindutva mobilisation that sat awkwardly with the Adivasis of Jharkhand’s many tribal groups.

The results indicate that the JMM alliance was able to hold on to its tribal vote and make inroads in non-tribal areas on account of its alliance with the Congress. While the BJP did well in the non-tribal belt, it was not able to make deeper inroads in tribal areas. In the winning alliance, the JMM was the leader, winning 80% of the seats it contested. The Congress clearly benefited from being the junior alliance partner, securing a strike rate of just over 50%.

The Lokniti-CSDS survey (see methodology) provides some indications of what contributed to the INDIA coalition’s win. While it scored in terms of better coordination within the alliance which brought together a diverse social coalition and support across regions, the NDA coalition depended largely on the BJP’s efforts. There was a much fairer distribution of seats within the INDIA coalition while the NDA saw the BJP contest seven of every 10 seats. The INDIA coalition’s united message worked to its advantage. It won support across age groups, did very well in rural areas, drew strong support from the poor and middle classes and the less educated, and finally, built a social coalition of support that included key segments among the Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes, Muslims and Yadavs. The diverse nature of its social coalition reflected the impact of the different parties in the coalition which included the JMM, the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Communist parties.

Voters and polarisation

The Lokniti-CSDS survey clearly indicates the strong levels of polarisation among voters. Two thirds of them who were fully satisfied with the Soren government, voted for the INDIA coalition. On the other hand, two thirds of those fully dissatisfied with the incumbent government voted for the NDA, suggesting that more than satisfaction, voters’ prior decision to vote for a particular coalition was crucial. While net satisfaction with the Narendra Modi government was much higher than that with the Soren government, the fact that this was a State election seemed to matter. The support for the party was clearly central to the voting decision, with more than half the respondents saying they cast their vote keeping in mind the party concerned.

Data indicate that voters were not very happy with the development record on the ground. They believed that the state of industrialisation and corruption had worsened in the past five years, while the situation regarding communal violence and naxalism had improved. Yet, two factors need to be considered. First, those who highlighted unemployment, poverty, inflation and the lack of development as factors continued to invest in the INDIA coalition. Second, women voters seem to have favoured the INDIA coalition in larger numbers. The impact of the Maiya Samman Yojana appeared to be a factor.

Role of leaders

Yet another factor aiding the INDIA coalition was the perception among voters that State-level issues were central to this election. More than half of those who took this stand favoured the winning coalition. On the other hand, just one in every 10 persons who believed that State issues mattered voted for NDA candidates. The impact of national leaders in supporting the coalition they led was also visible. Most of those who voted for the BJP endorsed the role of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in their voting choice. Similarly, when reflecting on the role of Rahul Gandhi, supporters of the INDIA coalition clearly highlighted his impact. Hemant Soren was the preferred Chief Minister choice of one-thirds of the respondents. Thus, while the BJP banked largely on the charisma of Mr. Modi, the INDIA coalition had a combination of national- and State-level leaders who contributed to heightened support for its candidates.

Thus, the victory of the INDIA coalition was closely linked to the support enjoyed by the JMM in the tribal pockets and the corollary support from its alliance partners in non-tribal areas. It scored over the NDA in securing support across key demographic indicators. Though there was a strong perception of increased corruption under the incumbent government, it was still voted back as other key factors emerged as key influencers determining voter choice.

The BJP did try to mobilise voters on issues of the Uniform Civil Code and Bangladeshi infiltrators, but voters were more concerned with their local identity issues — as is seen from the strong feeling voters expressed on the question of Sarna identity. Except for the Santhal community, the BJP was not able to attract many among other Adivasi groups. In the long run, the challenge for the BJP will be to connect with Adivasis. How it manages that with its overall ambition to also popularise Hindutva will decide the future course of political competition in the State.

Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is the Chief Editor of Studies in Indian Politics; Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-director Lokniti-CSDS; Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust and the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network.

Published - November 26, 2024 01:00 am IST