Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: CSDS-Lokniti Survey 

The voters’ favourable assessment of the incumbent government, Narendra Modi’s leadership, and the Mahayuti’s appeal for Hindu unity helped the alliance retain power.

In the past five years, there have been dramatic twists and turns in Maharashtra politics. After the 2019 Assembly elections, one coalition got dissolved and a new three-party coalition was formed. Two State-level parties went through bitter splits and a new three-party coalition was formed mid-way through the term of the Assembly. Such fluidity is seldom settled by just one round of electoral contests. Therefore, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was unlikely to signify a settled equation among the political players. The results of the Assembly elections testify to this ongoing process of reconfiguration of politics in the State.

Given the setback received by the BJP and its allies in the Lok Sabha elections, the performance of the Mahayuti, and specifically the BJP, in the Assembly elections is historic. The BJP has not only emerged as the single largest party, but also a party that might have hugely contributed to the impressive performance of its allies, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

The voters’ favourable assessment of the incumbent government, Narendra Modi’s leadership, and the Mahayuti’s appeal for Hindu unity helped the alliance retain power.

Methodology

These findings are from the Maharashtra Assembly election study 2024, conducted by the Lokniti programme of CSDS, Delhi. The survey was conducted between November 13 and 18. A total of 3,959 respondents were interviewed across 40 Assembly constituencies and 160 polling stations of Maharashtra.

We adopted the multi-stage random sampling design. This procedure ensures that the selected sample is fully representative of the cross-section of voters in the State. The Assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method (adjusting the probability of choosing a particular constituency according to the size of its electorate). Thereafter, four polling stations were selected from within each of the sampled Assembly constituencies using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, 40 respondents were randomly selected using the systematic random sampling method from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Of these 40, we set a target of 25 interviews per polling station.

Once we identified our sample, trained field investigators were sent to the field to conduct face-to-face interviews using a pre-designed mobile App. The questionnaire for the survey was translated into Marathi.

Though the sample is relatively small, it is truly representative of the social composition of the State. In order to correct for under-representation of any social groups, weights were applied. Weights were also applied based on the actual result.

The study was directed by Sanjay Kumar, Suhas Palshikar and Sandeep Shastri

Published - November 25, 2024 02:45 am IST