Jharkhand Assembly elections: The issue of governments, track records

If one were to view net satisfaction with the two levels of government, the central government had a six-percentage point higher assessment than the State government

Did the performance of the central and State governments impact on the voting preference of the voters in Jharkhand? The Lokniti-CSDS survey indicates that voting was largely based on local specificities.

Further, the party preference of voters appears to influence their analysis of the performance of the central and State governments.

Jharkhand Assembly elections: Full coverage

Voters in Jharkhand were positive in their assessment of both the central and State governments. There was a marginally higher level of satisfaction with the central government. If one were to view net satisfaction (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) with the two levels of government, the central government had a six-percentage point higher assessment than the State government. This assessment was largely on party lines. Two-thirds of those fully satisfied with the central government voted for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidates (68%). On the other hand, seven of every 10 persons of those fully dissatisfied with the central government favoured the INDIA coalition (Table 1).

When it came to the State government, two thirds of those fully satisfied with the State government favoured the INDIA coalition, while two thirds of those fully dissatisfied with the State government voted for the NDA (Table 2). This highlights the possibility that satisfaction and vote choice may not have a ‘cause-effect’ relationship. Instead, voters’ predetermined choices shape their assessment of other issues including the performance of the governments.

Other issues

How did respondents assess progress on key issues? There was a lukewarm response to progress on industrialisation. There was a visible assertion about the rise of corruption in the last five years. Respondents felt that both naxal attacks and communal violence had reduced. They also felt that religious harmony remained more or less the same (Table 3). Barring corruption, the less critical assessment of the government on other key parameters could well explain the success of the JMM-led coalition.

The survey also indicated the unhappiness of the respondents with rising inflation and shrinking employment opportunities. On availability of drinking water, improvement of roads, performance of government schools, supply of electricity, availability of health-care facilities and the safety of women, a majority said that these had improved or remained the same (Table 4). Thus, the absence of a strong negative reaction to the State government, save on the question of corruption, would have helped the incumbent government win another term.

Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust and National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network

Published - November 26, 2024 01:17 am IST