Digital and door-to-door campaigns, along with late deciders, shaped outcomes

A closer analysis reveals that the Mahayuti alliance outperformed the MVA by securing support from half of late deciders and also among those voters who decided during the campaign

In recent years, political parties have increasingly adopted diverse modes of communication as part of their election campaigns, ranging from traditional door-to-door canvassing to innovative digital outreach. In the Maharashtra Assembly election, where the contest was primarily bipolar between the Mahayuti alliance led by the BJP and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), understanding how parties reached voters is crucial to analysing their impact on electoral outcomes. Central to this discussion is the question: were voters predetermined in their choices, or did they remain open to persuasion during the campaign or at the last minute?

The Lokniti-CSDS survey data suggest that political parties employed a mix of strategies. While door-to-door canvassing allowed candidates to establish personal connections and address local issues, digital platforms emerged as powerful tools for reaching voters in this digital era.

The BJP spearheaded the digital campaign, engaging one-third of voters through digital platforms. In addition, the BJP also led in door-to-door canvassing, approaching three in ten voters in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) actively engaged in digital campaigning compared with other parties. However, other parties adopted an approach that involved utilising both digital and traditional modes of campaigning (Table 1).

One of the most interesting factors in the Maharashtra election was the timing of voter decision-making.

Approximately half (46%) of voters made their choices late in the campaign, while three in ten (30%) decided during the campaign, reflecting an electorate that remained undecided until the campaign began. It also underscored the importance of campaigns in influencing voter decisions. Only one-fifth (18%) of voters were early deciders.

Late deciders played a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome. A closer analysis reveals that the Mahayuti alliance outperformed the MVA among this group, securing support from half (51%) of late deciders and also among those voters who decided during campaigning.

This edge can be attributed to the BJP’s strategic focus during the campaign, which resonated strongly with undecided voters in the critical final stages.

The Maharashtra Assembly election showcased the evolving nature of electoral campaigns, where traditional and digital strategies intersect to shape voter behaviour. The BJP’s ability to integrate digital outreach with grassroots mobilization positioned it as a dominant force. As the high proportion of late deciders indicates, voters increasingly weigh their choices during the campaign period, making effective communication strategies crucial.

(Jyoti Mishra is a Research Associate at Lokniti-CSDS.)  

Published - November 25, 2024 02:02 am IST