TC Energy Q4 Earnings Call Highlights
by Kim Johansen · The Markets DailyTC Energy (NYSE:TRP) executives said 2025 was a “defining year” for the company, pointing to stronger safety performance, project execution that came in under budget, and higher year-over-year earnings momentum as the natural gas and power-focused operator positions for continued growth driven by LNG exports and rising electricity demand.
Fourth-quarter and full-year performance
On the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results call, President and CEO François Poirier highlighted a 9% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for 2025, attributing the performance to operational execution enabled by what he called TC Energy’s best safety results in five years.
Chief Financial Officer Sean O’Donnell said fourth-quarter comparable EBITDA grew 13% year over year, with the company generating “almost CAD 3 billion” in comparable EBITDA for the quarter. O’Donnell said TC Energy’s pipeline businesses set new all-time high delivery records, which he linked to the company’s focus on safety and operational excellence.
O’Donnell broke down the fourth-quarter comparable EBITDA drivers by segment:
- Canada Gas: EBITDA increased by CAD 110 million due to higher incentive earnings and flow-through depreciation on the NGTL and Mainline systems.
- U.S. Natural Gas: EBITDA increased by CAD 188 million, primarily from a Columbia Gas settlement, along with additional contract sales and higher realized earnings tied to the U.S. natural gas marketing business.
- Mexico: EBITDA increased by CAD 163 million, a 70% increase versus the prior year due to completion of Southeast Gateway, partially offset by currency and tax items managed within the company’s hedging framework.
- Power and Energy Solutions: Equity income from Bruce Power was lower quarter over quarter as Unit 4 and Unit 3 were both offline for the major component replacement (MCR) program, with additional impacts from planned maintenance outages. O’Donnell said this was partially offset by a higher contract price.
Project execution and capital plan updates
Poirier said TC Energy placed CAD 8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025 “on schedule and over 15% under budget.” In the fourth quarter alone, he said the company placed about $2 billion of assets into service on time and under budget, advanced $5 billion of projects at various stages, and expects to place approximately $4 billion into service in 2026. O’Donnell noted that 2026 in-service items include Bruce Power Unit 3’s return to service.
Management also discussed capital plan optimization. Poirier said the company shifted CAD 500 million of capital forward into 2026 to capture in-year EBITDA and create capacity for higher-return growth later in the decade. O’Donnell added that the company is optimizing short-cycle maintenance capital into the 2026 plan to generate an immediate return on and off invested capital, and cited an example where the MKY Gate Enhancement in-service date was pulled forward to late 2027.
During Q&A, Poirier described several reasons behind the under-budget performance, including prudent project planning and higher-quality estimates, some benefit from contractor capacity being “a bit looser” than expected at the time of planning, and internal efforts to find value. He also said the company is using artificial intelligence and best practices to improve competitiveness, while noting that returning large contingencies can also mean missed opportunities to deploy capital into additional growth projects over the multiyear window between sanctioning and in-service.
Growth pipeline: pending approvals and origination
Poirier said TC Energy added CAD 600 million of new projects in the fourth quarter, including additional NGTL expansion facilities and a brownfield U.S. compression expansion project he said was at a 5x build multiple. He also said about CAD 2 billion of late-stage de-risked opportunities moved into the “pending approval” bucket, bringing the high-conviction pending approval portfolio to roughly CAD 8 billion.
O’Donnell reiterated the company’s definition of “pending approval” as projects that are 90%+ likely, typically requiring management or board-level approvals to sanction. In response to an analyst question, the company said most of the pending approval opportunities are in the U.S. and generally negotiated-rate contracts given the size and demand profile of those projects.
Beyond that bucket, Poirier said TC Energy sees an additional CAD 12 billion of projects in origination. Management pointed to a non-binding open season on Columbia Gas that was “3 times oversubscribed,” with 1.5 Bcf/d of bids for a 0.5 Bcf/d opportunity, and said the company is evaluating how best to optimize capacity while remaining competitive. Tina (a member of the leadership team responding in Q&A) said the plan is to sanction the Columbia project this year, though details are still being negotiated with customers.
Management said the CAD 12 billion estimate is conservative and does not include potential developments such as Bruce C, which remains in feasibility and early development work. Later in the call, executives confirmed that MCR-related spending is included in the cited capital numbers, while Bruce C is not.
Demand backdrop and strategic positioning
Poirier framed the company’s growth outlook around increasing North American natural gas and power demand. He said TC Energy expects North American natural gas demand to increase by 45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by LNG exports, rising power generation needs, and increasing reliability requirements for local distribution companies.
He also emphasized TC Energy’s portfolio footprint, saying the company serves seven LNG facilities representing 30% of North American LNG feed gas across three countries and serves 170 power plants near high-growth markets such as PJM and MISO. Poirier said the company is positioned near approximately 60% of projected U.S. data center growth and highlighted TC Energy’s stake in Bruce Power as a differentiator as electricity demand is expected to grow through 2050.
In response to questions about data centers and power demand, executives said the company’s strategy remains focused “in front of the meter” with utility customers, while noting it would consider direct service to a data center if contract terms are consistent with the long-term arrangements typical of utility customers. Management said it is not pursuing behind-the-meter power project development and ownership at this time.
Bruce Power: availability, MCR progress, and Bruce C funding
Poirier said Bruce Power’s key focus remains reliability, availability, and safety across all eight units, alongside the MCR program and targeted initiatives to strengthen equipment reliability. He said each day a unit remains available leads to roughly CAD 1 million per day of incremental revenue for TC Energy. He also said expected availability is in the low-90% range for 2026, and O’Donnell noted Bruce Power achieved 86% availability in the fourth quarter, including a planned outage on Unit 2.
On Bruce C, Greg Grant said the company continues pre-FEED work, including technology selection and pre-construction activities, with funding provided by the federal government for current work and a next tranche expected from Ontario’s IESO. He said this funding would take the work “to the end of the decade.” Grant also referenced prior materials indicating an “inversion point” in cash flows later in the decade as annual investment in Bruce transitions to cash flow coming back, and said once the MCR program is complete, annual cash flow could be “upwards of over CAD 2 billion.”
For 2026 and beyond, O’Donnell reaffirmed the company’s comparable EBITDA outlook of CAD 11.6 billion to CAD 11.8 billion for 2026 and CAD 12.6 billion to CAD 13.1 billion for 2028. TC Energy also declared a first-quarter 2026 dividend of CAD 0.8775 per share (CAD 3.51 annualized), which O’Donnell said represents a 3.2% year-over-year increase and marks the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth.
About TC Energy (NYSE:TRP)
TC Energy (NYSE: TRP) is a North American energy infrastructure company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. Formerly known as TransCanada, the company rebranded as TC Energy to reflect its broad presence across Canada, the United States and Mexico. TC Energy develops, owns and operates a diversified portfolio of energy infrastructure assets that play a central role in the transportation and delivery of energy across the continent.
The company’s principal businesses include long‑distance natural gas transmission, liquids (crude oil) pipelines, natural gas storage and power generation.