What is the Ganga Water Treaty and how will it shape future India-Bangladesh ties?

Meanwhile, illegal migration from Bangladesh remains one of the most sensitive and politically charged issues for India with its bilateral ties, often running parallel to water-sharing disputes.

As the clock ticks down on a landmark 30-year water-sharing agreement between India and Bangladesh, which nears its end in December 2026, Bangladesh Minister Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir made a pointed statement. He said that future ties between Dhaka and Delhi would “largely depend on” the successful renewal or replacement of the Ganges Water Treaty.

Alamgir stressed that any new arrangement must be indefinite, not a short-term fix. With the 1996 Ganges or the Padma Water Sharing Treaty expiring this year, the minister’s remarks have thrust a decades-old hydrological dispute back into the spotlight.

The moment carries far more weight than a routine treaty renewal. It tests the maturity of India-Bangladesh ties with the new Tarique Rehman government in place.

What is the Ganga Water Treaty?

The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty is a landmark bilateral agreement between India and Bangladesh for dividing dry-season flows from January to May of the Ganges at the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal.

Signed on December 12, 1996, by then-Indian Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, it addressed long-standing disputes over upstream water diversion and established a rules-based framework for cooperation.

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Key provisions under the treaty:

The Ganges originates in the Himalayas, flows through India, and enters Bangladesh as the Padma. The Farakka Barrage in India was constructed primarily to divert water into the Hooghly River for navigability at Kolkata Port, which reduced flows into Bangladesh during the dry season (January–May), causing concerns over agriculture, fisheries, navigation, salinity intrusion, and ecosystems in southwestern Bangladesh.

Addressing the issues, short-term agreements in 1977 provided temporary relief, but a lasting solution came in 1996. The Ganga water treaty is renewable by mutual consent. It includes provisions for review every five years or earlier if requested and focuses on lean-season sharing.

The two countries share the river’s water at India’s Farakka Barrage during the critical dry season from January to May according to a simple formula. If the total available water is 70,000 cusecs or less, it is split equally between India and Bangladesh.

When availability is between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh is guaranteed 35,000 cusecs and India takes the rest.

Once the flow crosses 75,000 cusecs, India receives 40,000 cusecs, and Bangladesh gets the surplus, which protects Bangladesh during the most difficult period.

The treaty ensures that each country gets a minimum of 35,000 cusecs on an alternating 10-day basis between March 11 and May 10. Water is shared every 10 days from January to May, based on average historical flows recorded between 1949 and 1988.

The agreement also supports Dhaka’s efforts to build barrages on rivers like the Gorai-Madhumati and set up a Joint Rivers Commission to monitor implementation, resolve issues, and promote long-term cooperation.

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How will the treaty shape future India-Bangladesh ties?

The 1996 Ganga Water treaty is often cited as a diplomatic success that reduced acrimony and enabled broader cooperation. Providing predictability, recognizing Bangladesh’s lower-riparian rights, and creating a functional bilateral mechanism (JRC) despite implementation challenges.

The renewal could reinforce trust, especially as both nations face shared challenges to stabilise bilateral relations since the ouster of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

The Ganges is one of 54 shared rivers. Bangladesh seeks agreements on other prominent rivers like the Teesta. Linking the Ganges treaty to overall ties risks complicating negotiations.

Meanwhile, illegal migration from Bangladesh remains one of the most sensitive and politically charged issues for India with its bilateral ties, often running parallel to water-sharing disputes.

While the Bangladesh Minister’s recent statement links future relations primarily to a new water agreement, Indian policymakers frequently view cross-border movement, demographic changes, and border security as equally critical factors.

As one of South Asia’s most critical transboundary rivers enters a decisive phase, the question looms large: Can New Delhi and Dhaka craft a forward-looking agreement that safeguards Bangladesh’s water needs while preserving trust and cooperation? Or will the expiry of this foundational pact become a flashpoint in bilateral relations?