How Vijay’s TVK turned Tamil Nadu Assembly elections in on its head

After counting continues, the party has won 29 seats and is leading in 79 assembly segments in the state’s 234-member House. The performance has come in TVK’s first-ever election. The result has altered all political calculations in the state.

Chennai: Counting for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections on Monday came as a surprise as the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-turned-politician Vijay, surged ahead of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

After counting continues, the party has won 29 seats and is leading in 79 assembly segments in the state’s 234-member House. The performance has come in TVK’s first-ever election. The result has altered all political calculations in the state.

The DMK, which entered the election hoping for a third consecutive term, has fallen behind in numbers, while the AIADMK seems to be settling as distant third.

Can Vijay become the next chief minister of the state?

With the present numbers showing the TVK above the 100-seat mark, the party is in a position where it could explore post-poll options, including a possible alliance with the AIADMK, which could change the political equation involving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the DMK.

TVK National Spokesperson Felix Gerald has expressed confidence that the party would form the government. Speaking to PTI Videos, he said, “They may have experience of 50 or 75 years, but they have got experience only in looting the state,” adding that voters have turned towards the TVK out of dissatisfaction with established parties.

TVK’s poll promises and campaign pitch

A major part of TVK’s campaign has been its welfare-centric promises aimed at different sections of society. The party has announced six free LPG cylinders per year for households and 200 units of free electricity.

For women below 60 years, it has promised Rs 2,500 monthly assistance, while unemployed graduates would receive Rs 4,000 per month. Diploma holders would get Rs 2,000 monthly support.

On education and health, the TVK has promised Rs 25 lakh family health insurance cover, Rs 20 lakh collateral-free education loans for students and Rs 25 lakh collateral-free loans for young entrepreneurs.

For women self-help groups, the party has proposed Rs 5 lakh interest-free loans. The party’s manifesto also includes the establishment of 100 “Kamarajar Schools of Excellence” and marriage assistance in the form of one sovereign gold and a silk saree for economically weaker women.

Political equations

As counting progressed, TVK maintained a lead in several rounds across multiple constituencies, including parts of the Kongu region in western Tamil Nadu, which has traditionally seen strong competition between the AIADMK and the BJP. If the present numbers hold, the TVK cross into majority territory, depending on final results.

A first-time political outcome

If the TVK crosses the 118-seat majority mark, it would be a rare outcome in Tamil Nadu politics for a party formed just two years ago. While Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, formed the AIADMK in 1972 and became chief minister in 1977, he had spent years in the DMK before that transition. TVK’s rise, if it continues at this pace, would point to a different kind of political entry into power.

From the beginning of counting, including postal ballots and later EVM rounds, the party showed consistent gains. At one point, its numbers suggested it could even emerge as the main Opposition, overtaking the AIADMK in several regions.

Exit polls had largely projected a DMK advantage based on welfare schemes under its “Dravidian model” of governance, but trends have not followed that direction. The DMK, which has historically struggled to retain power beyond a single cycle except in 1971, now faces a different electoral picture as counting continues across the state.