Expected Trump visit poses political peril for Govt

US President Donald Trump's expected trip to Ireland next month comes almost a year to the day since his historic second state visit to Britain last year.

On that occasion, the US president and his wife Melania were treated to a lavish banquet in Windsor featuring a main course of Norfolk Chicken and drinks including a vintage port from 1945, a Hennessy Cognac Grand Champagne and a transatlantic cocktail.

But one imagines the Irish political and security classes are hardly uncorking champagne bottles or mixing cocktails at the thought of Mr Trump’s September stay in Ireland.

The Taoiseach insisted this past week how there was "nothing confirmed" in relation to any visit, but preparations have been under way for months for the trip and Mr Trump’s schedule has been finalised for the past several weeks.

It is understood Air Force One will touch down in Dublin on Saturday, 12 September before Mr Trump heads to Farmleigh House in the Phoenix Park for a bilateral meeting with the Taoiseach and then on to turn the sod on the new US embassy in Ballsbridge for his friend Ambassador Ed Walsh.

On Saturday afternoon, the US president will travel on his Marine One helicopter to Clare to spend two nights at his golf resort in Doonbeg where he will attend the Irish Open and present the trophy to the victorious golfer on Sunday evening.

He will depart on Monday morning.

The visit is full of potential moments of political and diplomatic peril for the Government with Micheál Martin likely to walk the same tightrope he navigated during his March trip to the Oval Office when he greets the US president at Farmleigh.

Those with knowledge of Mr Trump’s itinerary say there are no plans currently for him to visit President Catherine Connolly at Áras an Uachtaráin with the trip not a formal State visit.

However, the Áras says President Connolly would "consider any request she receives" for a meeting.

President Connolly insisted during last year’s election campaign that she would meet Mr Trump if the opportunity arose but she was critical of the Trump administration during her St Patrick’s Day message when she said that "the normalisation of war can never be accepted".

Any meeting would increase the beads of sweat on Government officials’ brows.

There are also no plans for President Trump to address the joint houses of the Oireachtas as his predecessor Joe Biden did in April 2023.

However, some believe he should be given the opportunity.

"He should be given full State honours and he should be allowed to address the Dáil," said Independent Tipperary South TD Mattie McGrath.

"The Dáil is back sitting later that week so why not open it up on the Monday and give President Trump the welcome he deserves.

"After all, look at all the jobs around Clonmel alone that come from American investment," he added.

Politically, the Government and the Taoiseach will have to ensure President Trump feels welcome while at the same trying to counter an opposition narrative that the Coalition is bending the knee to the US president.

"As a nation, we have a responsibility to accept his visit. He will meet the Taoiseach but that is normal diplomacy at work, and it is an opportunity for the Taoiseach to raise issues that concern Ireland and the people of Ireland", said Minister Timmy Dooley.

"The Taoiseach will also raise foreign policy issues – as he has done in the past such as when he met President Trump last March.

"I disagree with suggestions the Taoiseach was supine on that occasion, as he pushed in against some of the points that were raised by President Trump, particularly in relation to Europe and migration," he added.

There is no word yet of a joint press conference featuring the Taoiseach and President Trump - another potential moment to place a knot in the stomach of those in Government Buildings.

Adding to the political tension are plans for large scale protests in both central Dublin and at Doughmore Beach and Shannon Airport in Clare with People Before Profit-Solidarity TD Paul Murphy expecting "tens of thousands" to take to the streets.

Details for demonstrations are to be finalised in the coming days but Mr Trump’s last Irish visit in office saw left-wing, pro-Palestine, pro-choice, anti-racism and anti-war activists take to the streets and fly the 'Trump baby' blimp in Dublin.

Protesters will be keen to make their mark with the eyes of the world watching.

"We are certainly in solidarity with the Irish people who stand against Trump. We also deeply respect the strong commitment to human rights and dignity that Ireland and the Irish people have shown in the face of Trump’s actions," said the UK-based Stop Trump Coalition.

However, President Trump will be shielded away from the protesters - as he was last year in Britian when sticking inside the walls of Windsor Castle - with his engagements taking place within the confines of Phoenix Park and his own golf resort.

Sweeps and security checks have been under way in Doonbeg for several weeks with the overall security operation expected to cost over €20m and involve around 4,000 personnel.

"Phoenix Park will be easier managed for gardaí as it’s an enclosed space and the public can be kept away," said former Assistant Garda Commissioner Pat Leahy who has worked on previous high-profile visits.

"Clare will be much tougher. Specialist teams will have been preparing for this visit for months - everything will have been kept top secret.

"Regular gardaí will shortly get their exact postings."

More details about President Trump’s visit are likely to emerge in the coming days.

But the champagne and cocktails are unlikely to be brought out on Merrion Street until Air Force One is in the sky on its way home.