What Trump's war on Iran has meant for Ukraine

For Ukraine, Iran is a hostile state.

Tehran has supplied Russia with thousands of kamikaze Shahed drones for the past four years of Moscow's full-scale invasion, weapons that have killed hundreds of Ukrainian citizens and injured thousands.

A US war against Iran, an ally of Russia, that brings about regime change in Tehran could dent US-Russia relations and benefit Ukraine, one would think.

However, the war has not created a chasm between the US and Russia, even after Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a combined US-Israeli attack on Tehran on 28 February.

Russia has stuck by its ally, albeit with words only.

Mr Putin has been careful, as always, not to directly criticise Donald Trump lest he push the US president towards backing Ukraine’s position in peace talks.

Nor has Mr Trump's war had an impact on the volume of Russian drone strikes on Ukraine either. That is because Russia now produces enough of its own lethal drones, namely, the Geran-2, a knock-off version of the Shahed-136 drone.

Just days before the first US strikes on Iran, on 24 February, the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had said that another round of trilateral talks between Ukrainian, Russian and US officials would take place at the start of March in Abu Dhabi.

Those trilateral talks did not materialise because of air strikes in the Gulf.

The last meeting of the trilateral format took place in Geneva on 18 February, more than four weeks ago.

One senior EU official told The Financial Times earlier this week that talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials, mediated by the US, were "really in the danger zone".

Washington's priorities are focused on quick regime change in Iran, not on ending a long war in Europe.

To get the Americans back on side, Ukrainian officials have taken a practical step, offering drone expertise to the US and its allies in the Middle East.

According to Mr Zelensky, Ukraine has already deployed more than 200 drone experts to the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Ukrainian drone experts have also been deployed to Kuwait and Jordan, according to Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov.

Skilled in combatting Shahed drones after years of Russian strikes, the Ukrainian teams deployed to the Middle East specialise in drone interception warfare.

Such expertise will help to bolster Ukraine's standing among countries in the Gulf that have otherwise enjoyed strong economic ties with Russia for years.

"Our diplomats thought what Trump wanted from the European countries, was not just to be the recipient of support and security measures, but also to be a provider, being somebody who can give additional value to America itself and to American allies," said Oleksandr Kraeiv, a foreign policy expert at Ukrainian Prism, a thinktank in Kyiv.

He told RTÉ News that by offering drone expertise to the US and its allies, Ukraine had proved itself to be an ally that "can provide more than they request".

However, offers of Ukrainian assistance have not endeared Mr Zelensky to Mr Trump

"We don't need help in drone defence," Mr Trump told a Fox News podcast on 13 March.

He added: "We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually."

The Ukrainian president, Mr Trump told NBC News a day later on 14 March, was the "last person we need help from".

It was strange rhetoric from the US president who has criticised European allies in NATO for not joining US strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump also returned to his familiar repertoire of criticising Mr Zelensky for Russia’s continuing war.

"I’m surprised that Zelensky doesn’t want to make a deal," Mr Trump told NBC.

Ukraine's president has learned the hard way over the past year how to handle Mr Trump's jibes. He no longer praises the US president in every press interview as he did a year ago.

The reason for Mr Zelensky's frankness is likely down to the fact that Ukraine is not receiving anywhere near the volume of direct military aid from the US as it did in early 2025. Rather, European countries are footing the bill for US weaponry and sending it to Ukraine.

But in an interview with the BBC earlier this week, Mr Zelensky warned that a long war in the Middle East would suit Russia and threaten the delivery of US-manufactured missiles to Ukraine.

"In addition to energy prices, it means the depletion of US reserves, and the depletion of air defence manufacturers. So, we have a depletion of resources," he said.

To add to Ukraine’s woes, Russia has so far gained financially from the US's war on Iran.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait reduced oil exports from the region and damaged investor sentiment, causing the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, to soar to around $100 per barrel, from a pre-war price of $65.

Oil buyers turned to Russian exports to make up the shortfall, which has also increased rapidly in price from about $55 per barrel in late February to a current level of $90 per barrel.

Figures from Finnish-based think tank, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), estimate that Russia gained an additional €625m in oil exports during the first two weeks of US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

To Ukraine and Europe’s dismay, on 10 March, Mr Trump then eased US sanctions on Russian oil exports for one month to increase global supply and stabilise prices.

Iran’s closure this week of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint through which 20 to 25% of the world’s seaborne oil is traded, will only further squeeze global supply and continue to increase demand for Russian Urals oil.

And that means more money for Russia to fund its war in Ukraine.

Still, Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts to pressure Russia to end its war continue, with US and Ukrainian negotiators meeting yesterday for talks in Florida for the first time since 26 February. Those talks are due to continue today.

The trilateral format will resume but only after the US's war against Iran concludes, believes Mr Kraeiv, director of the North America Program at Ukrainian Prism.

"Russia is an ambiguous state concerning Iran. So basically, starting any negotiation concerning Ukraine will entangle both Ukraine and Iran into the same negotiating basket, which is not something that the US wants".