Republicans get boost with Virginia ruling, but keeping House still tough

The Supreme Court of Virginia sent a shockwave through the political world when it struck down the map intended to give Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats in Congress.

But Republicans should pause before claiming that this election will cost Democrats four seats.

The original maps — before the gerrymander — were drawn by two special masters, Dr. Bernie Grofman of UC Irvine, and myself.

We received our commission after the state’s independent redistricting commission deadlocked and failed to produce a map in a timely fashion.

While the map was drawn blind to politics, it nevertheless worked in such a way that it reflected the politics of the state well.

And so, in a normal year, we would have expected the map to produce 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

In a good GOP year, that number would flip, and in a great year they might even win the 10th district in the north, and claim seven seats.

On the other hand, in a bad Republican environment, the 2nd (Virginia Beach) and perhaps even the 1st district (the necks and western Chesterfield County) would go for Democrats.

Therein lies the rub.

This is not a normal year.

President Trump’s job approval is currently mired in the low 40s, and that normally spells doom for the president’s party.

Trump won the 2nd district by just 0.2% in 2024, and won the 1st by five points.

The 2nd district will be a very difficult hold for the Republicans in this environment.

The 1st would have increasingly been vulnerable to a surprise flip on election night.

In other words, even though Democrats likely won’t be able to oust Rep. John McGuire from the 5th (which went for Trump by 12 points) or Rep. Ben Cline from the 6th (Trump by 24), they stand a good chance of picking up one seat and a decent chance of netting two.

In the greater scheme of things, they’re still favored to take control of the House; an extra two seats might be nice but they will still control the agenda.

There’s two other reasons this might be a bit of a hidden blessing for Democrats.

In a decent Republican year, the map was a bit of a dummymander.

Only the Hampton Roads-based District 3 was truly safe for Democrats.

Districts 2 and 6 were potential GOP wins even in a normal year, with two more seats vulnerable in a Republican wave, and a few more hovering on the edge of competitiveness if the GOP were to regroup a bit in the suburbs after Trump’s presidency.

While Democrats won’t likely achieve maximum gains on this map, they’ll be insulated from bad luck as well.

The final reason goes hand-in-glove with this one.

Nothing prevents Virginia Democrats from trying again in 2028, and this time they’ll likely be able to avoid the procedural missteps that brought about this outcome.

It’s a lot easier to build a map that will last over the course of two elections than three.

Come 2030, Virginia Democrats might be glad they lost this one.

Where does it leave the midterms?

Much like in Virginia, new maps in Tennessee, Florida and other states will narrow the gap for Republicans, but it doesn’t completely erase that gap.

It just means that the fight for the small number of toss-up seats that will decide the House will be harder and more expensive than ever.

Sean Trende is the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics.