College football Week 11 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread

It won’t be long before helmets swap out logos for sponsors. Any year now, a commercial will run as a team lines up for a game-winning field goal. 

Money is all that matters — now more than ever.

There is no other reason for this week’s finalization of a 24-team playoff that will begin next season and bring irreparable damage to the most American of sports, watering down four-plus months of the best regular season for one extra weekend of mediocre playoff games.

It is fitting that ESPN and conference executives ignored the wishes of the masses shortly after the NCAA officially took a bulldozer to its once-unblemished bracket, introducing a 76-team field that will lead to greater expansion and greater damage to the best postseason in sports.

For decades, college football was content to let polls crown champions. Now, only three years after featuring a four-team field, the sport has accelerated through a logical middle ground, killing conference title games and much of the meaning in being a member of leagues in their bloated forms.

The greatest beneficiaries of the grotesque new format are the underachievers of the SEC and Big Ten. But it may come one year too late for Lane Kiffin. Despite featuring the top-ranked offense and defense in the SEC, No. 21 LSU is 0-3 against ranked teams this season, needing to run the table to have a chance at reaching the playoff for the first time in seven years.

No. 6 Texas is 4-0 against ranked opponents this season — including wins at Tennessee and Missouri — but playing under the lights in Death Valley is a different beast, amplifying the pressure on Arch Manning in his return to Louisiana.

Without All-American left tackle Trevor Goosby, Manning — who has taken the third-most sacks in the nation this season — will be forced into multiple turnovers, while getting knocked around by a defense with the nation’s highest sack percentage.

LSU (-4.5) will wait at least another week to learn if it must wait ‘til next year.

Illinois (+10) over UCLA

Update: I have now lost all four games picking against the Bruins since Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending injury. There is no turning back now, especially with the Illini on a four-game winning streak and having gone 23-11 against the spread as an underdog under Bret Bielema, including all three opportunities this season.

MIAMI (-13.5) over Duke

The Hurricanes will miss Malachi Toney, but their near comeback at Notre Dame showed they still have plenty to work with against an overrated Duke defense that hasn’t faced a top 40 offense. Blue Devils star running back Nate Sheppard will have nowhere to run against a Miami defense allowing 2.5 yards per carry.

OHIO STATE (-12.5) over Northwestern

Even if Aidan Chiles returns for Northwestern, the Buckeyes defense is too talented to get burned for a third consecutive game. If the Wildcats are without their starting quarterback, Ohio State will look like a juggernaut again.

SMU (-1.5) over Wake Forest

Last year, the Mustangs missed out on returning to the ACC Championship because of a last-second loss at Wake Forest. SMU can earn redemption and a shot to make this year’s title game by winning its 19th straight conference game at home.

VANDERBILT (+16.5) over Alabama

The Tide are a playoff lock, closing the season at home against Chattanooga and Auburn. A letdown after last week’s win at LSU would be on-brand for a program with four outright losses as a favorite of at least two touchdowns in the past three seasons. Vanderbilt is 13-5-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2024.

Tennessee (-2.5) over TEXAS A&M

It is dangerous to lay points at Kyle Field, but the Vols’ elite pass rush will make Marcel Reed (three passing touchdowns and seven interceptions in SEC play) and his 98th-ranked offense look even worse than usual.

GEORGIA (-15.5) over Missouri

The Bulldogs are not just the best team in the nation, but 6-2 against the spread as a favorite, having won their five conference games by an average of nearly 22 points per game. The Tigers are in the wrong weight class, having won just one of their past 12 games against ranked opponents, while going 1-6-1 against the spread as an underdog in the past two seasons.

USC (+10) over INDIANA

The champs have gone to overtime in back-to-back games against unranked opponents. Their five Big Ten games against teams that don’t own a share of last place — Hi, Rutgers! — have been decided by single digits. The Hoosiers are 0-6 against the spread at home and 1-7 as a favorite. They are averaging less than 12 points in regulation in their past four games. USC — for better and worse — offers a higher ceiling, coming off its win over Ohio State.

Boston College (+29.5) over NOTRE DAME

It is impossible to separate Notre Dame’s 1993 “Game of the Century” win over Charlie Ward and No. 1 Florida State from the championship-crushing upset the Irish suffered at home to Boston College one week later. It is impossible to ignore the potential for another letdown against the Eagles after Notre Dame’s season-saving win over No. 1 Miami.

Michigan (+11) over OREGON

The nation’s highest-paid offensive coordinator (Jason Beck) is gone. Kyle Whittingham’s first season in Ann Arbor looks increasingly likely to be his last. But even amid this embarrassing campaign, the Wolverines — who are 2-0 against the spread as an underdog — still have the nation’s third-ranked defense, allowing less than 17 points per game.

Ole Miss (-1.5) over OKLAHOMA

Buy low on sixth-year senior Trinidad Chambliss, who hasn’t lost back-to-back games since he was in high school. The Sooners haven’t beaten a top 40 offense this season and have dropped both of their home games in SEC play.

KENTUCKY (-3.5) over Florida

The Wildcats are 3-0 against the spread as a favorite, 4-1 at home and won last year’s meeting in Lexington, 38-7. The Gators are now 1-4 and averaging less than 16 points per game since rolling through four soft defenses in September.

ARIZONA (+2.5) Utah

Fade the public. The No. 2 Utes have benefited from playing their only tough games at home, barely scraping by against BYU and Houston. Utah has faced just one strong passing attack this season and brings the 108th-ranked pass defense to a matchup with Arizona’s Noah Fifita, who ranks fourth in the nation in passing yards (2,794) and third in completion percentage (73.0).

Coming off one of the biggest Holy War wins of all time, Utah will struggle to find the same intensity on the road against the No. 23 Wildcats, who are 5-0 at home. 

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OKLAHOMA STATE (-3.5) over Texas Tech

Don’t be fooled by the 362-yard, five-touchdown performance by Thomas Castellanos, who threw for more than 300 yards in just one of his previous 33 college starts before facing the worst pass defense in the nation (West Virginia).

Drew Mestemaker — the top quarterback prospect in the 2027 draft class, who ranks second in the nation in passing yards (329.0) for the third-highest scoring team in the nation (43.9) — is the only true gunslinger in a shootout against the nation’s second-worst pass defense. Oklahoma State is 4-0 at home against the number and outright.

Best bets: Tennessee, Michigan, Ole Miss

This season: 81-68-1 (21-9 best bets)