Steelers vs. Lions prediction: NFL Week 16 picks, odds, player props

The Lions sit one game outside of the NFC playoff picture with a 36 percent chance to make the postseason heading into their Week 16 bout against the Steelers.

This game has immense implications on Dan Campbell’s tenacious bunch: With a win, the Lions’ odds bump to 46 percent; a loss would drop them to 14 percent.

Campbell’s resilient influence has regressed since making it to the NFC Championship two years ago and finishing 15-2 last season. Detroit’s offense remains elite on paper, but the defense hasn’t kept up with the production; the Lions rank toward the bottom of the NFL in pass defense and explosive plays allowed. 

Add in an offensive line that’s been marred by injuries and a run game that relies on game-altering plays from Jahmyr Gibbs, and instead of commanding games, Detroit is merely surviving them.

It’s business as usual for Mike Tomlin in The Steel City. The Steelers are leading the AFC North by one game and are on track to crack the playoffs for their eighth time in 11 years. A win on Sunday would solidify Tomlin’s 19th winning season in 19 years as the Steelers coach. 

Campbell’s vertical attack has been stretching point totals for the last couple seasons; the Lions are averaging 30.5 points this year and Sunday’s line is set up in space at 52.5.

The Steelers are not built to play up-tempo football: They rank 24th in pass attempts and 23rd in pass yards. This Aaron Rodgers isn’t the aggressive gunslinger of old. He still hits his targets, completing 66 percent of his throws — the highest since his MVP season in 2021. This efficiency is built upon short throws and maintaining ball control as Rodgers has only attempted 24 passes of 20-plus air yards this season. 

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Pittsburgh’s run game is wildly inefficient. It sits 28th and 27th in rushing yards and attempts, respectively, drawing 3.9 yards per try. The Lions should have no problem managing that as they are No. 12 overall in run defense and a top-10 group in third-down stoppage.

Aside from Jared Goff’s chemistry with his receivers, which Pittsburgh can handle having snagged 12 picks this year, the Lions depend too much on Gibbs. After his three score, 264-yard career day four weeks ago, Gibbs has not topped 70 yards. 

That matters up against a Steelers defense that blitzes at a high rate and forces a positive turnover margin — even without Nick Herbig and TJ Watt on the field.

These are two disciplined football teams fighting for their fates. I trust both Campbell and Tomlin to meet one another tactfully and make ball security the priority.

THE PLAY: Under 52.5 (-115, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.