Houston vs. Texas A&M prediction: March Madness odds, picks, best bet for Saturday’s Round of 32

Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament was full of drama, so you may not have noticed how impressive No. 10 Texas A&M was in its win over No. 7 Saint Mary’s.

The Aggies raced out to an 11-point lead at halftime, and then kept the Gaels at arm’s length the rest of the way. It was a comprehensive victory for A&M, especially considering it was a 2.5-point underdog.

Houston, the fifth-favorite to win the national championship entering the Round of 32, awaits the Aggies on Saturday.

Houston vs. Texas A&M odds, prediction

This is your classic oil-and-vinegar matchup. While the Cougars and Aggies call the same state home, the differences end there.

Houston is modeled in the image of its legendary coach, Kelvin Sampson, and prefers to play a stoic, plodding, physical style of basketball that puts an emphasis on defense, first and foremost.

Only three teams boast a better defensive profile than the Cougars in KenPom’s rankings, and only two in Bart Torvik’s.

The Cougars are experts at forcing turnovers, and they take care of the basketball better than just about anybody. That is key, because Houston is desperate to get the game on its terms. Sampson wants his team to play at a slow tempo, and the way to ensure that is to have the ball.

The Aggies want the opposite game flow.

A small, speedy team that relies heavily on guards to do the damage, Texas A&M shows up to each contest with the intention of running its opponent off the floor.

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That strategy can work against a lot of teams, especially those prone to turnovers, but it’s difficult to imagine that Houston will get caught up in the cyclone that A&M wants to spin.

I like Houston’s chances of turning this into a low-event tilt, which should set us up for a same-game parlay backing the Cougars against the spread and the Under 142.5 points.

The Play: Houston -10.5 | Under 142.5 points (+227, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.